The close contest between a 25 bps cut and no change in the Bank of Russia’s December key rate decision stems from the September 11 hold at 14%, prompted by elevated underlying inflation in Q3, one-off fuel price spikes linked to refinery disruptions, and persistently high inflation expectations. Traders weigh these against moderating headline pressures and the central bank’s emphasis on data-dependent easing, with fiscal policy expansion adding upside risks to the inflation path. Recent statements highlight the need for confirmation that disinflation is sustainable before further steps, leaving room for either outcome depending on October and November prints, budget updates, and external conditions. This balance keeps the two leading probabilities nearly even while smaller probabilities for larger moves reflect tail risks around energy markets and policy signals.