Bank of Canada policy expectations for the December 9, 2026, decision reflect a tight balance between contained underlying inflation and emerging upside risks from energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. With the overnight rate held at 2.25% since late 2025 and headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain around 2%, traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to no change and 40% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent August CPI and employment data showed limited pass-through of gasoline costs, supporting the hold case, yet money markets price in partial tightening by year-end amid firmer GDP growth. US tariff uncertainty and labor market slack near 6.5% unemployment continue to anchor the consensus toward stability through 2026, with the next key catalysts being the October 28 meeting and forthcoming inflation releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 54%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
25 bps decrease 1.8%
$13,616 Vol.
$13,616 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase
40%
No Change
54%
25 bps decrease
2%
50+ bps decrease
5%
No Change 54%
25 bps increase 40%
50+ bps decrease 5.0%
25 bps decrease 1.8%
$13,616 Vol.
$13,616 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
50+ bps increase
$1,138 Vol.
1%
25 bps increase
$1,998 Vol.
40%
No Change
$7,803 Vol.
54%
25 bps decrease
$1,439 Vol.
2%
50+ bps decrease
$1,238 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Bank of Canada policy expectations for the December 9, 2026, decision reflect a tight balance between contained underlying inflation and emerging upside risks from energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. With the overnight rate held at 2.25% since late 2025 and headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain around 2%, traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to no change and 40% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent August CPI and employment data showed limited pass-through of gasoline costs, supporting the hold case, yet money markets price in partial tightening by year-end amid firmer GDP growth. US tariff uncertainty and labor market slack near 6.5% unemployment continue to anchor the consensus toward stability through 2026, with the next key catalysts being the October 28 meeting and forthcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Volume
$13,616End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.Bank of Canada policy expectations for the December 9, 2026, decision reflect a tight balance between contained underlying inflation and emerging upside risks from energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. With the overnight rate held at 2.25% since late 2025 and headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain around 2%, traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to no change and 40% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent August CPI and employment data showed limited pass-through of gasoline costs, supporting the hold case, yet money markets price in partial tightening by year-end amid firmer GDP growth. US tariff uncertainty and labor market slack near 6.5% unemployment continue to anchor the consensus toward stability through 2026, with the next key catalysts being the October 28 meeting and forthcoming inflation releases.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$13,616End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Bank of Canada policy expectations for the December 9, 2026, decision reflect a tight balance between contained underlying inflation and emerging upside risks from energy prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. With the overnight rate held at 2.25% since late 2025 and headline CPI near 3% while core measures remain around 2%, traders assign a 53.5% implied probability to no change and 40% to a 25 basis point hike. Recent August CPI and employment data showed limited pass-through of gasoline costs, supporting the hold case, yet money markets price in partial tightening by year-end amid firmer GDP growth. US tariff uncertainty and labor market slack near 6.5% unemployment continue to anchor the consensus toward stability through 2026, with the next key catalysts being the October 28 meeting and forthcoming inflation releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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