Recent polling shows the CAQ under Christine Fréchette closing sharply on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with Synopsis and Léger surveys placing the parties in a statistical tie near 27-30 percent after earlier PQ leads. This rebound, partly tied to voter focus on U.S. tariffs and economic management, has produced wide seat-projection ranges for the CAQ around a 28-seat mean. Numerous competitive ridings between the two parties, combined with Liberal weakness outside Montreal and Conservative gains near Quebec City, sustain high uncertainty. Further campaign polling, debates, or shifts on trade and sovereignty issues could widen or narrow the CAQ outcome distribution in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 28%
25-29 27%
20-24 15%
15-19 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
3%
5-9
9%
10-14
10%
15-19
13%
20-24
15%
25-29
27%
30+
28%
30+ 28%
25-29 27%
20-24 15%
15-19 13%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$471 Vol.
3%
5-9
$877 Vol.
9%
10-14
$2,251 Vol.
10%
15-19
$828 Vol.
13%
20-24
$591 Vol.
15%
25-29
$964 Vol.
27%
30+
$1,206 Vol.
28%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ under Christine Fréchette closing sharply on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with Synopsis and Léger surveys placing the parties in a statistical tie near 27-30 percent after earlier PQ leads. This rebound, partly tied to voter focus on U.S. tariffs and economic management, has produced wide seat-projection ranges for the CAQ around a 28-seat mean. Numerous competitive ridings between the two parties, combined with Liberal weakness outside Montreal and Conservative gains near Quebec City, sustain high uncertainty. Further campaign polling, debates, or shifts on trade and sovereignty issues could widen or narrow the CAQ outcome distribution in coming weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$7,188End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the CAQ under Christine Fréchette closing sharply on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with Synopsis and Léger surveys placing the parties in a statistical tie near 27-30 percent after earlier PQ leads. This rebound, partly tied to voter focus on U.S. tariffs and economic management, has produced wide seat-projection ranges for the CAQ around a 28-seat mean. Numerous competitive ridings between the two parties, combined with Liberal weakness outside Montreal and Conservative gains near Quebec City, sustain high uncertainty. Further campaign polling, debates, or shifts on trade and sovereignty issues could widen or narrow the CAQ outcome distribution in coming weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$7,188End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the CAQ under Christine Fréchette closing sharply on the Parti Québécois ahead of the October 5 election, with Synopsis and Léger surveys placing the parties in a statistical tie near 27-30 percent after earlier PQ leads. This rebound, partly tied to voter focus on U.S. tariffs and economic management, has produced wide seat-projection ranges for the CAQ around a 28-seat mean. Numerous competitive ridings between the two parties, combined with Liberal weakness outside Montreal and Conservative gains near Quebec City, sustain high uncertainty. Further campaign polling, debates, or shifts on trade and sovereignty issues could widen or narrow the CAQ outcome distribution in coming weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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