The recent 27-month term extension approved by Somaliland’s House of Elders in April 2026, following National Electoral Commission recommendations citing security concerns, technical constraints, and drought conditions in eastern regions, has shifted the parliamentary election timeline well beyond 2027. This institutional decision by the Guurti, which extended the House of Representatives mandate originally set to expire in mid-2026, underpins trader consensus reflected in the overwhelming probability assigned to no vote occurring before 2027. The three recognized parties—Waddani, Kulmiye, and UCID—face no immediate contest under the current framework, which limits national parties to three and uses regional proportional representation. Potential shifts could arise from an unexpected early dissolution of parliament, major security improvements enabling an accelerated schedule, or renewed National Electoral Commission advice prompting Guurti reconsideration, though such developments remain outside established timelines.