Sweden's Social Democrats entered the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election with polling averages around 28%, down from their 30.3% share and 107 seats in 2022. This positioned the party for roughly 95-105 seats under the proportional Sainte-Laguë system, with the left bloc holding a narrow projected edge over the Tidö government parties plus Sweden Democrats. Recent surveys from Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion showed consistent erosion in Social Democrat support amid voter concerns over immigration, crime, and energy policy, while the party remained the largest single force. The final count delivered 99 seats, locking in the sub-105 outcome that traders had priced near certainty based on these trends and historical conversion rates from vote share to mandates. Late shifts in turnout or bloc alliances could have altered marginal seats but did not materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<105 100.0%
105-109 <1%
110-114 <1%
115-119 <1%
$49,067 Vol.
$49,067 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<105
Yes
105-109
No
110-114
No
115-119
No
120-124
No
125-129
No
130+
No
<105 100.0%
105-109 <1%
110-114 <1%
115-119 <1%
$49,067 Vol.
$49,067 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<105
$16,815 Vol.
Yes
105-109
$12,809 Vol.
No
110-114
$8,226 Vol.
No
115-119
$2,667 Vol.
No
120-124
$3,119 Vol.
No
125-129
$2,324 Vol.
No
130+
$3,106 Vol.
No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden's Social Democrats entered the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election with polling averages around 28%, down from their 30.3% share and 107 seats in 2022. This positioned the party for roughly 95-105 seats under the proportional Sainte-Laguë system, with the left bloc holding a narrow projected edge over the Tidö government parties plus Sweden Democrats. Recent surveys from Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion showed consistent erosion in Social Democrat support amid voter concerns over immigration, crime, and energy policy, while the party remained the largest single force. The final count delivered 99 seats, locking in the sub-105 outcome that traders had priced near certainty based on these trends and historical conversion rates from vote share to mandates. Late shifts in turnout or bloc alliances could have altered marginal seats but did not materialize.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$49,067End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden's Social Democrats entered the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election with polling averages around 28%, down from their 30.3% share and 107 seats in 2022. This positioned the party for roughly 95-105 seats under the proportional Sainte-Laguë system, with the left bloc holding a narrow projected edge over the Tidö government parties plus Sweden Democrats. Recent surveys from Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion showed consistent erosion in Social Democrat support amid voter concerns over immigration, crime, and energy policy, while the party remained the largest single force. The final count delivered 99 seats, locking in the sub-105 outcome that traders had priced near certainty based on these trends and historical conversion rates from vote share to mandates. Late shifts in turnout or bloc alliances could have altered marginal seats but did not materialize.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$49,067End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Sweden's Social Democrats entered the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election with polling averages around 28%, down from their 30.3% share and 107 seats in 2022. This positioned the party for roughly 95-105 seats under the proportional Sainte-Laguë system, with the left bloc holding a narrow projected edge over the Tidö government parties plus Sweden Democrats. Recent surveys from Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion showed consistent erosion in Social Democrat support amid voter concerns over immigration, crime, and energy policy, while the party remained the largest single force. The final count delivered 99 seats, locking in the sub-105 outcome that traders had priced near certainty based on these trends and historical conversion rates from vote share to mandates. Late shifts in turnout or bloc alliances could have altered marginal seats but did not materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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