**Recent polling averages project neither Netanyahu’s right-wing religious bloc (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit) nor the main opposition “change” bloc (Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot, Together led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, The Democrats led by Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman) will reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority on October 27.** Both sides typically poll in the low-to-mid 50s, with Arab parties (Joint List and Ra’am) holding roughly 12–14 seats that could prove decisive. Several opposition parties have publicly ruled out coalitions relying on Arab lists, while small parties such as Amcha Israel and the Reservists-Economic Party hover near the 3.25% threshold, creating volatility in final bloc totals. Surplus-vote agreements have been finalized, and candidate lists closed in early September. Post-election negotiations could extend for weeks or months, with possible outcomes including a minority government, a unity coalition excluding certain factions, or fresh elections if no majority emerges. These dynamics keep coalition composition highly uncertain ahead of voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Jun 30, 2027
Shas
62%
Yashar
69%
Together
67%
Likud
38%
Otzma Yehudit
27%
The Democrats
38%
United Torah Judaism
37%
RZP-Zehut
30%
Amcha Yisrael
28%
Yisrael Beiteinu
27%
New Economic Party / The Reservists
26%
Ra'am
15%
Blue and White
10%
Joint List
9%
Noam
11%
$2,457 Vol.
Shas
$20 Vol.
62%
Yashar
$40 Vol.
69%
Together
$100 Vol.
67%
Likud
$824 Vol.
38%
Otzma Yehudit
$80 Vol.
27%
The Democrats
$330 Vol.
38%
United Torah Judaism
$493 Vol.
37%
RZP-Zehut
$452 Vol.
30%
Amcha Yisrael
$0 Vol.
28%
Yisrael Beiteinu
$0 Vol.
27%
New Economic Party / The Reservists
$0 Vol.
26%
Ra'am
$0 Vol.
15%
Blue and White
$37 Vol.
10%
Joint List
$30 Vol.
9%
Noam
$50 Vol.
11%
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.**Recent polling averages project neither Netanyahu’s right-wing religious bloc (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit) nor the main opposition “change” bloc (Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot, Together led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, The Democrats led by Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman) will reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority on October 27.**
Both sides typically poll in the low-to-mid 50s, with Arab parties (Joint List and Ra’am) holding roughly 12–14 seats that could prove decisive. Several opposition parties have publicly ruled out coalitions relying on Arab lists, while small parties such as Amcha Israel and the Reservists-Economic Party hover near the 3.25% threshold, creating volatility in final bloc totals. Surplus-vote agreements have been finalized, and candidate lists closed in early September. Post-election negotiations could extend for weeks or months, with possible outcomes including a minority government, a unity coalition excluding certain factions, or fresh elections if no majority emerges. These dynamics keep coalition composition highly uncertain ahead of voting.
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Volume
$2,457End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://main.knesset.gov.ilResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.**Recent polling averages project neither Netanyahu’s right-wing religious bloc (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit) nor the main opposition “change” bloc (Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot, Together led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, The Democrats led by Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman) will reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority on October 27.**
Both sides typically poll in the low-to-mid 50s, with Arab parties (Joint List and Ra’am) holding roughly 12–14 seats that could prove decisive. Several opposition parties have publicly ruled out coalitions relying on Arab lists, while small parties such as Amcha Israel and the Reservists-Economic Party hover near the 3.25% threshold, creating volatility in final bloc totals. Surplus-vote agreements have been finalized, and candidate lists closed in early September. Post-election negotiations could extend for weeks or months, with possible outcomes including a minority government, a unity coalition excluding certain factions, or fresh elections if no majority emerges. These dynamics keep coalition composition highly uncertain ahead of voting.
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.
Volume
$2,457End Date
Jun 30, 2027Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 7:00 PM ETResolution Source
https://main.knesset.gov.ilResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages project neither Netanyahu’s right-wing religious bloc (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit) nor the main opposition “change” bloc (Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot, Together led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, The Democrats led by Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Lieberman) will reach the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority on October 27.** Both sides typically poll in the low-to-mid 50s, with Arab parties (Joint List and Ra’am) holding roughly 12–14 seats that could prove decisive. Several opposition parties have publicly ruled out coalitions relying on Arab lists, while small parties such as Amcha Israel and the Reservists-Economic Party hover near the 3.25% threshold, creating volatility in final bloc totals. Surplus-vote agreements have been finalized, and candidate lists closed in early September. Post-election negotiations could extend for weeks or months, with possible outcomes including a minority government, a unity coalition excluding certain factions, or fresh elections if no majority emerges. These dynamics keep coalition composition highly uncertain ahead of voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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