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Politics·Serbia

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Politics·Serbia

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Aleksandar Vučić 52.0%

Ilija Srdanović 36%

Stefan Krkobabić 5.0%

Vladan Đokić 4.6%

Polymarket

$412,392 Vol.

Aleksandar Vučić 52.0%

Ilija Srdanović 36%

Stefan Krkobabić 5.0%

Vladan Đokić 4.6%

Polymarket

$412,392 Vol.

icon for Aleksandar Vučić

Aleksandar Vučić

$278,905 Vol.

52%

icon for Ilija Srdanović

Ilija Srdanović

$58,924 Vol.

36%

icon for Stefan Krkobabić

Stefan Krkobabić

$7,668 Vol.

5%

icon for Vladan Đokić

Vladan Đokić

$12,173 Vol.

5%

icon for Ana Brnabić

Ana Brnabić

$17,999 Vol.

1%

icon for Dragan Đilas

Dragan Đilas

$8,327 Vol.

<1%

icon for Miloš Vučević

Miloš Vučević

$8,969 Vol.

<1%

icon for Đuro Macut

Đuro Macut

$5,606 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ivica Dačić

Ivica Dačić

$6,990 Vol.

<1%

icon for Branimir Jovanović

Branimir Jovanović

$6,831 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.Aleksandar Vučić leads the market at 52% as the Serbian Progressive Party nominee for prime minister ahead of the October 25, 2026 snap parliamentary elections. He announced his presidential resignation in June 2026 to enable the move, following sustained student-led protests over the 2024 Novi Sad railway incident and governance concerns that prompted earlier prime ministerial changes from Miloš Vučević to Đuro Macut. The ruling coalition’s parliamentary majority position and Vučić’s long dominance keep his implied probability elevated, yet opposition lists—including student-backed options—and coalition math introduce uncertainty that caps separation from alternatives trading near 50%. Election results and subsequent National Assembly vote will determine the outcome before the 2028 resolution window.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Volume
$412,392
End Date
Jun 30, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.Aleksandar Vučić leads the market at 52% as the Serbian Progressive Party nominee for prime minister ahead of the October 25, 2026 snap parliamentary elections. He announced his presidential resignation in June 2026 to enable the move, following sustained student-led protests over the 2024 Novi Sad railway incident and governance concerns that prompted earlier prime ministerial changes from Miloš Vučević to Đuro Macut. The ruling coalition’s parliamentary majority position and Vučić’s long dominance keep his implied probability elevated, yet opposition lists—including student-backed options—and coalition math introduce uncertainty that caps separation from alternatives trading near 50%. Election results and subsequent National Assembly vote will determine the outcome before the 2028 resolution window.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Serbia by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who is not elected by the National Assembly will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Serbian government.
Volume
$412,392
End Date
Jun 30, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 11:54 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Serbia?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aleksandar Vučić" at 52%, followed by "Ilija Srdanović" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Serbia?" has generated $412.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Serbia?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Serbia?" is "Aleksandar Vučić" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ilija Srdanović" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Serbia?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.