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Politics·Spain

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Politics·Spain

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo 79%

Pedro Sánchez 14.6%

Santiago Abascal 4.1%

Isabel Díaz Ayuso 2.8%

Polymarket

$129,516 Vol.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo 79%

Pedro Sánchez 14.6%

Santiago Abascal 4.1%

Isabel Díaz Ayuso 2.8%

Polymarket

$129,516 Vol.

icon for Alberto Núñez Feijóo

Alberto Núñez Feijóo

$29,350 Vol.

79%

icon for Pedro Sánchez

Pedro Sánchez

$21,256 Vol.

15%

icon for Santiago Abascal

Santiago Abascal

$13,050 Vol.

4%

icon for Isabel Díaz Ayuso

Isabel Díaz Ayuso

$7,721 Vol.

3%

icon for Carlos Cuerpo

Carlos Cuerpo

$3,787 Vol.

1%

icon for Óscar Puente

Óscar Puente

$3,310 Vol.

<1%

icon for María Jesús Montero

María Jesús Montero

$5,056 Vol.

<1%

icon for Yolanda Díaz

Yolanda Díaz

$4,544 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ernest Urtasun

Ernest Urtasun

$4,525 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aitor Esteban

Aitor Esteban

$4,920 Vol.

<1%

icon for Miguel Tellado

Miguel Tellado

$5,472 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ester Muñoz

Ester Muñoz

$5,605 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pepa Millán

Pepa Millán

$4,525 Vol.

<1%

icon for Cuca Gamarra

Cuca Gamarra

$5,122 Vol.

<1%

icon for Borja Sémper

Borja Sémper

$4,379 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carles Puigdemont

Carles Puigdemont

$6,894 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads the market at 78.5% as leader of the opposition Partido Popular, which holds a consistent polling edge over the PSOE ahead of Spain’s next general election due no later than August 2027. Trader consensus prices in sustained pressure on incumbent Pedro Sánchez, whose government faces coalition fragility, recent regional setbacks, corruption investigations linked to the Koldo affair, and the Ceuta migrant crisis that has dominated recent political debate. Sánchez’s re-election prospects sit at 14.6%, reflecting limited paths to a renewed parliamentary majority amid public fatigue with reliance on regional and separatist partners. Lower probabilities for Santiago Abascal, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and other figures align with polling showing Feijóo as the primary alternative in a fragmented Congress where coalitions determine investiture. Upcoming budget votes and regional contests could still shift positioning before the vote.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$129,516
End Date
Mar 31, 2028
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Alberto Núñez Feijóo leads the market at 78.5% as leader of the opposition Partido Popular, which holds a consistent polling edge over the PSOE ahead of Spain’s next general election due no later than August 2027. Trader consensus prices in sustained pressure on incumbent Pedro Sánchez, whose government faces coalition fragility, recent regional setbacks, corruption investigations linked to the Koldo affair, and the Ceuta migrant crisis that has dominated recent political debate. Sánchez’s re-election prospects sit at 14.6%, reflecting limited paths to a renewed parliamentary majority amid public fatigue with reliance on regional and separatist partners. Lower probabilities for Santiago Abascal, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, and other figures align with polling showing Feijóo as the primary alternative in a fragmented Congress where coalitions determine investiture. Upcoming budget votes and regional contests could still shift positioning before the vote.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$129,516
End Date
Mar 31, 2028
Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 1:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Spain?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alberto Núñez Feijóo" at 79%, followed by "Pedro Sánchez" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Spain?" has generated $129.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Spain?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Spain?" is "Alberto Núñez Feijóo" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Pedro Sánchez" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Spain?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.