The dispersion of probabilities across the 310–354 seat ranges for United Russia in the September 2026 State Duma election reflects uncertainty over the effectiveness of administrative mobilization, regional turnout targets, and opposition performance in both party-list and single-member district voting. Recent polling from agencies such as FOM and VTsIOM places the ruling party’s support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, well below its official 2021 result, prompting traders to weigh scenarios where Kremlin efforts secure a constitutional majority above 300 seats against risks of modest erosion. Key differentiators among leading outcomes include the scale of managed stability measures and whether smaller parties clear the five-percent threshold to fragment the remaining vote. Scheduled regional elections and candidate vetting processes over the coming months could consolidate or shift sentiment toward one band as these variables clarify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated340–354 33%
355+ 20%
295–309 18.3%
325–339 18%
$24,534 Vol.
$24,534 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<280
8%
280–294
9%
295–309
18%
310–324
21%
325–339
18%
340–354
33%
355+
20%
340–354 33%
355+ 20%
295–309 18.3%
325–339 18%
$24,534 Vol.
$24,534 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<280
$6,278 Vol.
8%
280–294
$2,828 Vol.
9%
295–309
$1,601 Vol.
18%
310–324
$1,426 Vol.
21%
325–339
$1,963 Vol.
18%
340–354
$1,499 Vol.
33%
355+
$8,939 Vol.
20%
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The dispersion of probabilities across the 310–354 seat ranges for United Russia in the September 2026 State Duma election reflects uncertainty over the effectiveness of administrative mobilization, regional turnout targets, and opposition performance in both party-list and single-member district voting. Recent polling from agencies such as FOM and VTsIOM places the ruling party’s support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, well below its official 2021 result, prompting traders to weigh scenarios where Kremlin efforts secure a constitutional majority above 300 seats against risks of modest erosion. Key differentiators among leading outcomes include the scale of managed stability measures and whether smaller parties clear the five-percent threshold to fragment the remaining vote. Scheduled regional elections and candidate vetting processes over the coming months could consolidate or shift sentiment toward one band as these variables clarify.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$24,534End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The dispersion of probabilities across the 310–354 seat ranges for United Russia in the September 2026 State Duma election reflects uncertainty over the effectiveness of administrative mobilization, regional turnout targets, and opposition performance in both party-list and single-member district voting. Recent polling from agencies such as FOM and VTsIOM places the ruling party’s support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, well below its official 2021 result, prompting traders to weigh scenarios where Kremlin efforts secure a constitutional majority above 300 seats against risks of modest erosion. Key differentiators among leading outcomes include the scale of managed stability measures and whether smaller parties clear the five-percent threshold to fragment the remaining vote. Scheduled regional elections and candidate vetting processes over the coming months could consolidate or shift sentiment toward one band as these variables clarify.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$24,534End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dispersion of probabilities across the 310–354 seat ranges for United Russia in the September 2026 State Duma election reflects uncertainty over the effectiveness of administrative mobilization, regional turnout targets, and opposition performance in both party-list and single-member district voting. Recent polling from agencies such as FOM and VTsIOM places the ruling party’s support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, well below its official 2021 result, prompting traders to weigh scenarios where Kremlin efforts secure a constitutional majority above 300 seats against risks of modest erosion. Key differentiators among leading outcomes include the scale of managed stability measures and whether smaller parties clear the five-percent threshold to fragment the remaining vote. Scheduled regional elections and candidate vetting processes over the coming months could consolidate or shift sentiment toward one band as these variables clarify.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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