Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois ahead of the Quebec Liberals and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, with the PQ drawing particularly strong francophone support that translates into majority seat projections under the province’s first-past-the-post system. The October 5, 2026 election date is now less than two months away, and trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained advantage in vote intention surveys conducted through early August. The CAQ’s modest recovery following its April leadership transition has not closed the gap, while the Liberals remain competitive in popular vote but trail in projected seats. Smaller parties register negligible support in both polling and market pricing. These trends, reinforced by the wisdom of crowds in real-money markets, anchor the current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 76%
CAQ 16%
PLQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$753,401 Vol.
$753,401 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
76%
CAQ
16%
PLQ
9%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 76%
CAQ 16%
PLQ 9%
PCQ <1%
$753,401 Vol.
$753,401 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$79,900 Vol.
76%
CAQ
$107,878 Vol.
16%
PLQ
$99,782 Vol.
9%
PCQ
$206,967 Vol.
<1%
QS
$101,378 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,498 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois ahead of the Quebec Liberals and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, with the PQ drawing particularly strong francophone support that translates into majority seat projections under the province’s first-past-the-post system. The October 5, 2026 election date is now less than two months away, and trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained advantage in vote intention surveys conducted through early August. The CAQ’s modest recovery following its April leadership transition has not closed the gap, while the Liberals remain competitive in popular vote but trail in projected seats. Smaller parties register negligible support in both polling and market pricing. These trends, reinforced by the wisdom of crowds in real-money markets, anchor the current implied probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$753,401End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois ahead of the Quebec Liberals and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, with the PQ drawing particularly strong francophone support that translates into majority seat projections under the province’s first-past-the-post system. The October 5, 2026 election date is now less than two months away, and trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained advantage in vote intention surveys conducted through early August. The CAQ’s modest recovery following its April leadership transition has not closed the gap, while the Liberals remain competitive in popular vote but trail in projected seats. Smaller parties register negligible support in both polling and market pricing. These trends, reinforced by the wisdom of crowds in real-money markets, anchor the current implied probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$753,401End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois ahead of the Quebec Liberals and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, with the PQ drawing particularly strong francophone support that translates into majority seat projections under the province’s first-past-the-post system. The October 5, 2026 election date is now less than two months away, and trader consensus reflects the PQ’s sustained advantage in vote intention surveys conducted through early August. The CAQ’s modest recovery following its April leadership transition has not closed the gap, while the Liberals remain competitive in popular vote but trail in projected seats. Smaller parties register negligible support in both polling and market pricing. These trends, reinforced by the wisdom of crowds in real-money markets, anchor the current implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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