The incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition secured 67 seats in preliminary results from the November 7 election under New Zealand’s MMP system, one above the 66-seat majority threshold in the expanded 131-seat Parliament. National’s strong electorate performance produced an 11-seat overhang, delivering 42 seats despite a narrow second-place party vote share behind Labour. This outcome, combined with ACT’s and NZ First’s list allocations, underpins trader consensus on National as the election winner. Official results on November 27 will incorporate roughly 399,000 special votes, which have historically shifted a small number of seats; a material leftward swing sufficient to drop the coalition below 66 seats remains possible but appears limited on current counts.