Recent polling averages place the PP at roughly 32% and Vox at 19%, projecting a combined 198–205 seats in the 350-seat Congress—well above the 176-seat threshold—while the PSOE trails at 26% and its left-regional allies remain fragmented below prior levels. Pedro Sánchez called the November 29 snap election after housing decrees collapsed in parliament amid widespread protests, leaving the governing bloc without a path to majority. Vox has doubled its projected representation from 2023, and the PP-Vox pairing already governs several regions, reinforcing expectations of a stable right-wing coalition. These trends have produced trader consensus around an 86% implied probability for a PP+Vox majority.