Chang San-cheng, the Kuomintang incumbent, holds a commanding 92.5% implied probability in the Taoyuan mayoral race ahead of the November 28, 2026, vote, reflecting his incumbency advantage, record on infrastructure projects including MRT expansion and the Aerotropolis, and steady governance metrics that have lifted trader consensus from around 83% in October. Recent polls show him ahead on perceived electability and suitability despite a narrow raw support gap with Democratic Progressive Party challenger Huang Shih-chieh, whose emphasis on responsive local management has not yet closed the enthusiasm differential. Huang Shih-chieh trails at 7.4% while other names remain negligible. Late developments such as shifts in turnout among key voter blocs, major campaign events, or unforeseen issues within the final weeks could still narrow the margin before ballots close.