Lai Jui-lung of the Democratic Progressive Party holds an 88% implied probability in the Kaohsiung mayoral election market, reflecting trader consensus on his structural advantages ahead of the November 28 vote. As the DPP nominee succeeding two-term incumbent Chen Chi-mai, Lai benefits from established party infrastructure, recent polling leads of 7–20 points in several surveys, and emphasis on continuity in AI industry clusters, semiconductor development, airport upgrades, and social welfare expansions. Ko Chih-en of the Kuomintang sits at 11%, supported by her legislative record and calls for greater oversight, regional resource equity, and cross-strait economic links, though she trails in “likely winner” assessments. Minor candidates, including Chang Ching of the Judicial Reform Party, register under 1% amid limited visibility. Recent campaign activity centers on policy debates, ballot number draws, and targeted outreach in swing districts, with 12–27% undecided voters remaining a variable.