KMT traders assign the highest probability because the party enters the November 28 local elections holding 14 of 22 mayor and magistrate seats, with stronger polling leads in most rural counties and several special municipalities. Recent campaign activity, including televised policy forums and candidate rallies in Taipei, New Taipei, and Kaohsiung, has produced mixed but competitive individual-race surveys, leaving DPP gains in urban strongholds insufficient to overcome the KMT’s wider geographic base. The KMT–TPP coordination agreement has frayed in several districts, further limiting the third party’s reach and keeping its implied chance near zero. With voting two weeks away, the market’s 68–69 percent KMT consensus reflects the structural advantage of incumbency and seat distribution rather than any single late surge.