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Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

icon for Dublin-Central By-Election Winner
Elections·Ireland

Dublin-Central By-Election Winner

Daniel Ennis 75%

Janice Boylan 17.8%

Gerry Hutch 4.5%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,067,795 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 75%

Janice Boylan 17.8%

Gerry Hutch 4.5%

Ray McAdam 1.7%

Polymarket

$1,067,795 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$29,765 Vol.

75%

Janice Boylan

$16,729 Vol.

18%

Gerry Hutch

$503,040 Vol.

5%

Ray McAdam

$33,252 Vol.

2%

Malachy Steenson

$19,915 Vol.

1%

Gillian Sherratt

$181,905 Vol.

1%

Janet Horner

$11,268 Vol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$12,683 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$44,400 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$52,694 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$8,623 Vol.

<1%

John Stephens

$153,521 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).**Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile—he worked for sitting TD Gary Gannon before his 2024 council election—and the party's foothold in this competitive three-seat constituency previously held by Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe.** Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 17.8% following her recent council debate gaffe linking water fluoridation to dental issues, which she later clarified, potentially denting momentum in leader Mary Lou McDonald's home patch amid fragmented left-wing votes from Labour, Greens, and People Before Profit. Independent Gerry Hutch garners 4.6% on novelty bets despite his criminal background, with over €500,000 wagered on him per reports; Fine Gael's Ray McAdam faces an ethics complaint over alleged misuse of an official car. No public polls have emerged, leaving odds shaped by campaign trail buzz and historical independent strength, though late scandals or turnout could shift the closely watched race.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,067,795
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).**Trader consensus heavily favors Social Democrats councillor Daniel Ennis at 74.5% implied probability to win the Dublin Central Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his strong local profile—he worked for sitting TD Gary Gannon before his 2024 council election—and the party's foothold in this competitive three-seat constituency previously held by Fine Gael's Paschal Donohoe.** Sinn Féin's Janice Boylan trails at 17.8% following her recent council debate gaffe linking water fluoridation to dental issues, which she later clarified, potentially denting momentum in leader Mary Lou McDonald's home patch amid fragmented left-wing votes from Labour, Greens, and People Before Profit. Independent Gerry Hutch garners 4.6% on novelty bets despite his criminal background, with over €500,000 wagered on him per reports; Fine Gael's Ray McAdam faces an ethics complaint over alleged misuse of an official car. No public polls have emerged, leaving odds shaped by campaign trail buzz and historical independent strength, though late scandals or turnout could shift the closely watched race.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,067,795
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 75%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 75¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Ennis" at 75%, meaning the market assigns a 75% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Dublin-Central By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.