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icon for Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

icon for Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Iván Cepeda Castro 84%

Abelardo de la Espriella 15.8%

Paloma Valencia 1.1%

Vicky Dávila <1%

Polymarket

$5,894,615 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 84%

Abelardo de la Espriella 15.8%

Paloma Valencia 1.1%

Vicky Dávila <1%

Polymarket

$5,894,615 Vol.

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$512,499 Vol.

84%

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$1,016,740 Vol.

16%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$562,194 Vol.

1%

icon for Vicky Dávila

Vicky Dávila

$439,750 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo

Luis Gilberto Murillo

$298,122 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López

Claudia López

$300,293 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez

David Luna Sánchez

$283,051 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo

Juan Daniel Oviedo

$156,932 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar

Gustavo Bolívar

$229,484 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergio Fajardo

Sergio Fajardo

$209,235 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán

Juan Manuel Galán

$235,184 Vol.

<1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras

Germán Vargas Lleras

$287,138 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$285,258 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$256,692 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$144,829 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$335,378 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$305,336 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). **Trader consensus heavily favors Historic Pact candidate Iván Cepeda Castro (83.5%) to secure outright victory in Colombia's May 31 presidential first round, requiring over 50% of votes to avoid a June 21 runoff.** This positioning stems from his sustained polling leads—around 37-44% in recent Invamer, CNC, and AtlasIntel surveys—driven by President Gustavo Petro's coalition consolidation, May Day rally momentum, and expected high left-wing turnout in urban areas like Bogotá. Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella (15.8%) has surged past center-right Paloma Valencia in the latest trackers, but opposition fragmentation caps his first-round ceiling. Recent armed dissident audio endorsements for Cepeda sparked backlash without denting odds, amid ongoing pre-election violence concerns; late shifts could still force a runoff.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$5,894,615
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). **Trader consensus heavily favors Historic Pact candidate Iván Cepeda Castro (83.5%) to secure outright victory in Colombia's May 31 presidential first round, requiring over 50% of votes to avoid a June 21 runoff.** This positioning stems from his sustained polling leads—around 37-44% in recent Invamer, CNC, and AtlasIntel surveys—driven by President Gustavo Petro's coalition consolidation, May Day rally momentum, and expected high left-wing turnout in urban areas like Bogotá. Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella (15.8%) has surged past center-right Paloma Valencia in the latest trackers, but opposition fragmentation caps his first-round ceiling. Recent armed dissident audio endorsements for Cepeda sparked backlash without denting odds, amid ongoing pre-election violence concerns; late shifts could still force a runoff.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$5,894,615
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Frequently Asked Questions

" Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 84%, followed by "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" has generated $5.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.