Esteban "Steve" Guerra secured the Democratic nomination for Cameron County Judge by defeating incumbent Eddie Treviño Jr. 55% to 45% in the May 2026 primary runoff. Cameron County’s strong Democratic voter base gives the nominee a clear path to victory in the November general election against Republican Mauro Garza. Traders reflect this structural advantage in Guerra’s commanding position, while Garza’s lower odds align with typical partisan patterns in the county. No major shifts in candidate positioning, endorsements, or turnout indicators have emerged since the runoff to alter the outlook. Late developments such as unexpected turnout changes or significant campaign events before November could still influence final margins.