Recent polling averages show Democratic state Representative James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate general election, consistent with the market's close consensus. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn positioned him as the nominee, yet ongoing personal controversies and a high-profile divorce have narrowed his support among some Republican voters while boosting Talarico's appeal in a state that remains structurally favorable to the GOP. Multiple August surveys, including those from Texas Southern University and Texas Pulse, confirm margins under 5 points, reflecting balanced turnout expectations and voter focus on economic concerns. Upcoming debates, further legal developments, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could widen the gap by altering swing voter priorities or base mobilization before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоTexas Senate Election Winner
Texas Senate Election Winner
$754,446 Обс.
$754,446 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
52%
Ken Paxton (R)
48%
$754,446 Обс.
$754,446 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
James Talarico (D)
$360,858 Обс.
52%
Ken Paxton (R)
$393,588 Обс.
48%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages show Democratic state Representative James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate general election, consistent with the market's close consensus. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn positioned him as the nominee, yet ongoing personal controversies and a high-profile divorce have narrowed his support among some Republican voters while boosting Talarico's appeal in a state that remains structurally favorable to the GOP. Multiple August surveys, including those from Texas Southern University and Texas Pulse, confirm margins under 5 points, reflecting balanced turnout expectations and voter focus on economic concerns. Upcoming debates, further legal developments, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could widen the gap by altering swing voter priorities or base mobilization before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$754,446Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages show Democratic state Representative James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate general election, consistent with the market's close consensus. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn positioned him as the nominee, yet ongoing personal controversies and a high-profile divorce have narrowed his support among some Republican voters while boosting Talarico's appeal in a state that remains structurally favorable to the GOP. Multiple August surveys, including those from Texas Southern University and Texas Pulse, confirm margins under 5 points, reflecting balanced turnout expectations and voter focus on economic concerns. Upcoming debates, further legal developments, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could widen the gap by altering swing voter priorities or base mobilization before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$754,446Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages show Democratic state Representative James Talarico holding a narrow edge over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Senate general election, consistent with the market's close consensus. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn positioned him as the nominee, yet ongoing personal controversies and a high-profile divorce have narrowed his support among some Republican voters while boosting Talarico's appeal in a state that remains structurally favorable to the GOP. Multiple August surveys, including those from Texas Southern University and Texas Pulse, confirm margins under 5 points, reflecting balanced turnout expectations and voter focus on economic concerns. Upcoming debates, further legal developments, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could widen the gap by altering swing voter priorities or base mobilization before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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