Mary Peltola maintains a narrow first-choice lead over incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s ranked-choice Senate contest, with unofficial tallies showing her at roughly 48.9 percent to his 47.3 percent after 86 percent of ballots are counted. Ongoing absentee and mail processing from varied regions continues to shape the final first-round margin, while minor candidates including a same-name independent have drawn limited support that could influence redistribution if no one reaches 50 percent. Traders assign the highest probability to a 3-6 percent Peltola edge because recent drops have kept the gap stable in that range and remaining ballots are unlikely to produce a larger shift before ranked-choice tabulation begins. Certification remains weeks away, leaving room for modest adjustments from late-counted precincts.