Recent polling averages show Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola separated by just 1-3 points in Alaska’s U.S. Senate contest, with results fluctuating between narrow leads for either candidate depending on the survey. This tightness stems from Peltola’s strong name recognition and cross-appeal in a ranked-choice voting system, offset by Sullivan’s incumbency and the state’s underlying Republican lean. Multiple September surveys, including those from co/efficient and AARP, underscore the narrow margins on the initial ballot, while forecasters rate the race a toss-up. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects uncertainty over how ranked-choice reallocations and turnout among independents could shift the final first-round spread before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeltola 0-3% 18%
Peltola 3-6% 18%
Sullivan 6-9% 14%
Sullivan 9-12% 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
5%
Sullivan 9-12%
14%
Sullivan 6-9%
14%
Sullivan 3-6%
11%
Sullivan 0-3%
13%
Peltola 0-3%
18%
Peltola 3-6%
18%
Peltola 6-9%
13%
Peltola 9-12%
3%
Peltola 12+%
14%
Peltola 0-3% 18%
Peltola 3-6% 18%
Sullivan 6-9% 14%
Sullivan 9-12% 14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Sullivan 12+%
$246 Vol.
5%
Sullivan 9-12%
$42 Vol.
14%
Sullivan 6-9%
$42 Vol.
14%
Sullivan 3-6%
$62 Vol.
11%
Sullivan 0-3%
$43 Vol.
13%
Peltola 0-3%
$81 Vol.
18%
Peltola 3-6%
$42 Vol.
18%
Peltola 6-9%
$47 Vol.
13%
Peltola 9-12%
$53 Vol.
3%
Peltola 12+%
$42 Vol.
14%
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola separated by just 1-3 points in Alaska’s U.S. Senate contest, with results fluctuating between narrow leads for either candidate depending on the survey. This tightness stems from Peltola’s strong name recognition and cross-appeal in a ranked-choice voting system, offset by Sullivan’s incumbency and the state’s underlying Republican lean. Multiple September surveys, including those from co/efficient and AARP, underscore the narrow margins on the initial ballot, while forecasters rate the race a toss-up. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects uncertainty over how ranked-choice reallocations and turnout among independents could shift the final first-round spread before November 3.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Volume
$701End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola separated by just 1-3 points in Alaska’s U.S. Senate contest, with results fluctuating between narrow leads for either candidate depending on the survey. This tightness stems from Peltola’s strong name recognition and cross-appeal in a ranked-choice voting system, offset by Sullivan’s incumbency and the state’s underlying Republican lean. Multiple September surveys, including those from co/efficient and AARP, underscore the narrow margins on the initial ballot, while forecasters rate the race a toss-up. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects uncertainty over how ranked-choice reallocations and turnout among independents could shift the final first-round spread before November 3.
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$701End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 2:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola separated by just 1-3 points in Alaska’s U.S. Senate contest, with results fluctuating between narrow leads for either candidate depending on the survey. This tightness stems from Peltola’s strong name recognition and cross-appeal in a ranked-choice voting system, offset by Sullivan’s incumbency and the state’s underlying Republican lean. Multiple September surveys, including those from co/efficient and AARP, underscore the narrow margins on the initial ballot, while forecasters rate the race a toss-up. Trader pricing across margin buckets reflects uncertainty over how ranked-choice reallocations and turnout among independents could shift the final first-round spread before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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