Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive as Election Day approaches, with recent polling showing margins under 5 points in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Low presidential approval and midterm headwinds have narrowed gaps in Republican-held seats, while open Democratic seats in Michigan and Georgia draw strong challengers. Late-cycle factors such as candidate recruitment, turnout in swing areas, and any final polling shifts could determine which races finish within the threshold. Traders focus on these battlegrounds because small changes in voter preference or participation often decide outcomes in a chamber where control hinges on a handful of close results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$62,418 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
84%
Kansas
69%
Alaska
68%
Iowa
62%
Michigan
60%
Ohio (Special)
57%
Maine
53%
New Hampshire
57%
Nebraska
46%
South Carolina
41%
Georgia
27%
Florida (Special)
25%
Minnesota
22%
North Carolina
13%
Montana
12%
New Mexico
12%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
4%
$62,418 Vol.
Texas
$7,129 Vol.
84%
Kansas
$556 Vol.
69%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
68%
Iowa
$5,641 Vol.
62%
Michigan
$2,735 Vol.
60%
Ohio (Special)
$3,936 Vol.
57%
Maine
$1,020 Vol.
53%
New Hampshire
$2,346 Vol.
57%
Nebraska
$3,687 Vol.
46%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
41%
Georgia
$1,394 Vol.
27%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,715 Vol.
22%
North Carolina
$5,544 Vol.
13%
Montana
$2,759 Vol.
12%
New Mexico
$6,665 Vol.
12%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive as Election Day approaches, with recent polling showing margins under 5 points in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Low presidential approval and midterm headwinds have narrowed gaps in Republican-held seats, while open Democratic seats in Michigan and Georgia draw strong challengers. Late-cycle factors such as candidate recruitment, turnout in swing areas, and any final polling shifts could determine which races finish within the threshold. Traders focus on these battlegrounds because small changes in voter preference or participation often decide outcomes in a chamber where control hinges on a handful of close results.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$62,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive as Election Day approaches, with recent polling showing margins under 5 points in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Low presidential approval and midterm headwinds have narrowed gaps in Republican-held seats, while open Democratic seats in Michigan and Georgia draw strong challengers. Late-cycle factors such as candidate recruitment, turnout in swing areas, and any final polling shifts could determine which races finish within the threshold. Traders focus on these battlegrounds because small changes in voter preference or participation often decide outcomes in a chamber where control hinges on a handful of close results.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,418End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive as Election Day approaches, with recent polling showing margins under 5 points in states including Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Low presidential approval and midterm headwinds have narrowed gaps in Republican-held seats, while open Democratic seats in Michigan and Georgia draw strong challengers. Late-cycle factors such as candidate recruitment, turnout in swing areas, and any final polling shifts could determine which races finish within the threshold. Traders focus on these battlegrounds because small changes in voter preference or participation often decide outcomes in a chamber where control hinges on a handful of close results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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