Recent polling from mid-September consistently places Renan Santos (Missão) between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios, aligning with trader emphasis on the 2-4% and 4-6% brackets ahead of the October 4 vote. As an outsider candidate of a newly registered small party, Santos draws limited support outside younger voters despite digital outreach and criticism of both the Workers’ Party and Bolsonarism. His candidacy registration was unanimously validated by the TSE on September 10 after prior procedural delays, allowing resumed access to public funds and campaign activity. Multiple surveys show him trailing other third-way names such as Augusto Cury while the race remains dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. No major late shifts have altered this low-single-digit positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2-4% 41%
4-6% 22%
<2% 19%
8%+ 11%
$63,498 Vol.
$63,498 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
19%
2-4%
41%
4-6%
22%
6-8%
9%
8%+
11%
2-4% 41%
4-6% 22%
<2% 19%
8%+ 11%
$63,498 Vol.
$63,498 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
<2%
$813 Vol.
19%
2-4%
$2,061 Vol.
41%
4-6%
$2,848 Vol.
22%
6-8%
$602 Vol.
9%
8%+
$57,175 Vol.
11%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September consistently places Renan Santos (Missão) between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios, aligning with trader emphasis on the 2-4% and 4-6% brackets ahead of the October 4 vote. As an outsider candidate of a newly registered small party, Santos draws limited support outside younger voters despite digital outreach and criticism of both the Workers’ Party and Bolsonarism. His candidacy registration was unanimously validated by the TSE on September 10 after prior procedural delays, allowing resumed access to public funds and campaign activity. Multiple surveys show him trailing other third-way names such as Augusto Cury while the race remains dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. No major late shifts have altered this low-single-digit positioning.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volume
$63,498End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September consistently places Renan Santos (Missão) between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios, aligning with trader emphasis on the 2-4% and 4-6% brackets ahead of the October 4 vote. As an outsider candidate of a newly registered small party, Santos draws limited support outside younger voters despite digital outreach and criticism of both the Workers’ Party and Bolsonarism. His candidacy registration was unanimously validated by the TSE on September 10 after prior procedural delays, allowing resumed access to public funds and campaign activity. Multiple surveys show him trailing other third-way names such as Augusto Cury while the race remains dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. No major late shifts have altered this low-single-digit positioning.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$63,498End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September consistently places Renan Santos (Missão) between 2% and 5% in first-round scenarios, aligning with trader emphasis on the 2-4% and 4-6% brackets ahead of the October 4 vote. As an outsider candidate of a newly registered small party, Santos draws limited support outside younger voters despite digital outreach and criticism of both the Workers’ Party and Bolsonarism. His candidacy registration was unanimously validated by the TSE on September 10 after prior procedural delays, allowing resumed access to public funds and campaign activity. Multiple surveys show him trailing other third-way names such as Augusto Cury while the race remains dominated by Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. No major late shifts have altered this low-single-digit positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
88%
Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44%
Will Augusto Cury win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
40%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions