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Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins

Flavio Bolsonaro 37%

Lula 12%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Flavio Bolsonaro 37%

Lula 12%

Rui Costa Pimenta <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$1,301 Vol.

37%

icon for Lula

Lula

$2,581 Vol.

37%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$542 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$531 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$505 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$539 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$524 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$467 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$305 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$372 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$405 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$388 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$372 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's 2026 presidential race in Tocantins remains tightly contested between leading contenders Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, with recent national and regional polling trends showing both hovering near 37-41% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoffs. Polarization between the Workers' Party incumbent seeking reelection and the Liberal Party challenger backed by the Bolsonaro family keeps support divided along established voter blocs, while minor candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos draw single-digit shares that fragment the field without creating clear separation. Official campaigning opened in mid-August with initial debates scheduled soon, alongside scrutiny of Flávio Bolsonaro's associations that have slightly narrowed his position in some surveys. Trader consensus on even odds for top placement in the state reflects these balanced dynamics, where shifts in turnout among evangelical or rural voters, late endorsements, or further revelations could widen gaps ahead of the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,832
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Brazil's 2026 presidential race in Tocantins remains tightly contested between leading contenders Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, with recent national and regional polling trends showing both hovering near 37-41% in first-round scenarios and similar margins in runoffs. Polarization between the Workers' Party incumbent seeking reelection and the Liberal Party challenger backed by the Bolsonaro family keeps support divided along established voter blocs, while minor candidates like Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos draw single-digit shares that fragment the field without creating clear separation. Official campaigning opened in mid-August with initial debates scheduled soon, alongside scrutiny of Flávio Bolsonaro's associations that have slightly narrowed his position in some surveys. Trader consensus on even odds for top placement in the state reflects these balanced dynamics, where shifts in turnout among evangelical or rural voters, late endorsements, or further revelations could widen gaps ahead of the October 4 first round.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,832
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 37%, followed by "Lula" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.