Skip to main content
icon for Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place

Mailson da Silva Neto 44%

Mariano Macedo 44%

Paulo Rubem Santiago 44%

Samuel Timoteo 44%

Polymarket
NEW

Mailson da Silva Neto 44%

Mariano Macedo 44%

Paulo Rubem Santiago 44%

Samuel Timoteo 44%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Mailson da Silva Neto

Mailson da Silva Neto

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Mariano Macedo

Mariano Macedo

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Paulo Rubem Santiago

Paulo Rubem Santiago

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Samuel Timoteo

Samuel Timoteo

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Túlio Gadêlha

Túlio Gadêlha

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Marília Arraes

Marília Arraes

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Mendonça Filho

Mendonça Filho

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Pastor Gilvan Costa

Pastor Gilvan Costa

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Humberto Costa

Humberto Costa

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Gorett Bitu

Gorett Bitu

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Carlos Sant'Anna

Carlos Sant'Anna

$0 Vol.

41%

icon for Eduardo da Fonte

Eduardo da Fonte

$0 Vol.

41%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Pernambuco's October 2026 Senate contest features an unusually open field for the two seats, with party switches, incumbent reelection bids, and a crowded list of pre-candidates preventing any single frontrunner from consolidating support. Recent polling from April to June shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading some scenarios but facing tight competition from Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), Miguel Coelho (União Brasil), and others, with margins often within single digits or statistical ties. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and shifting alliances ahead of the first-round vote, sustains trader consensus near even odds across numerous names, as small swings in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the top finishers.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Pernambuco's October 2026 Senate contest features an unusually open field for the two seats, with party switches, incumbent reelection bids, and a crowded list of pre-candidates preventing any single frontrunner from consolidating support. Recent polling from April to June shows Marília Arraes (PDT) leading some scenarios but facing tight competition from Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho (PL), Miguel Coelho (União Brasil), and others, with margins often within single digits or statistical ties. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and shifting alliances ahead of the first-round vote, sustains trader consensus near even odds across numerous names, as small swings in turnout or late endorsements could reorder the top finishers.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Humberto Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?

Will Humberto Costa win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?

44%
icon for Will Dr. Marcelo Queiroga win the most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?

Will Dr. Marcelo Queiroga win the most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?

44%
icon for Will Erika Kokay win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?

Will Erika Kokay win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?

44%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mailson da Silva Neto" at 44%, followed by "Mariano Macedo" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Mailson da Silva Neto" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mariano Macedo" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Pernambuco Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.