The closely matched odds in Alagoas reflect a fragmented first-round field ahead of the October 4 vote, with national frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro drawing on distinct regional bases while governors Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and others split conservative support. Lula benefits from longstanding Northeast patterns among lower-income and Catholic voters, yet Flávio’s choice of Alagoas deputy Alfredo Gaspar as running mate and the broader Bolsonaro family mobilization create counter-momentum in the state. Limited state-specific polling, undecided turnout, and the absence of recent campaign catalysts in Alagoas sustain trader equilibrium, with separation likely only after intensified regional events or clearer national momentum shifts in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 85%
Clariana Barao 42%
Zema 3%
Edmilson Costa 1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
85%
Clariana Barao
42%
Zema
3%
Edmilson Costa
23%
Flavio Bolsonaro
24%
Hertz Dias
25%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
22%
Pablo Marçal
43%
Renan Santos
-
Escritor Augusto Cury
42%
Ronaldo Caiado
43%
Rui Costa Pimenta
43%
Samara
-
Lula 85%
Clariana Barao 42%
Zema 3%
Edmilson Costa 1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$81 Vol.
85%
Clariana Barao
$70 Vol.
42%
Zema
$81 Vol.
3%
Edmilson Costa
$81 Vol.
23%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$81 Vol.
24%
Hertz Dias
$81 Vol.
25%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$70 Vol.
22%
Pablo Marçal
$81 Vol.
43%
Renan Santos
$81 Vol.
-
Escritor Augusto Cury
$70 Vol.
42%
Ronaldo Caiado
$81 Vol.
43%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$81 Vol.
43%
Samara
$81 Vol.
-
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The closely matched odds in Alagoas reflect a fragmented first-round field ahead of the October 4 vote, with national frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro drawing on distinct regional bases while governors Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and others split conservative support. Lula benefits from longstanding Northeast patterns among lower-income and Catholic voters, yet Flávio’s choice of Alagoas deputy Alfredo Gaspar as running mate and the broader Bolsonaro family mobilization create counter-momentum in the state. Limited state-specific polling, undecided turnout, and the absence of recent campaign catalysts in Alagoas sustain trader equilibrium, with separation likely only after intensified regional events or clearer national momentum shifts in the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Volume
$1,022End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The closely matched odds in Alagoas reflect a fragmented first-round field ahead of the October 4 vote, with national frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro drawing on distinct regional bases while governors Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and others split conservative support. Lula benefits from longstanding Northeast patterns among lower-income and Catholic voters, yet Flávio’s choice of Alagoas deputy Alfredo Gaspar as running mate and the broader Bolsonaro family mobilization create counter-momentum in the state. Limited state-specific polling, undecided turnout, and the absence of recent campaign catalysts in Alagoas sustain trader equilibrium, with separation likely only after intensified regional events or clearer national momentum shifts in the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$1,022End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched odds in Alagoas reflect a fragmented first-round field ahead of the October 4 vote, with national frontrunners Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro drawing on distinct regional bases while governors Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema and others split conservative support. Lula benefits from longstanding Northeast patterns among lower-income and Catholic voters, yet Flávio’s choice of Alagoas deputy Alfredo Gaspar as running mate and the broader Bolsonaro family mobilization create counter-momentum in the state. Limited state-specific polling, undecided turnout, and the absence of recent campaign catalysts in Alagoas sustain trader equilibrium, with separation likely only after intensified regional events or clearer national momentum shifts in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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