Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 97% implied probability in this market due to Mato Grosso’s entrenched conservative leanings and agribusiness priorities, which delivered decisive margins for his father in 2022. Recent state-level polls from June through early September consistently show him leading Lula by double-digit margins in the first-round vote, often exceeding 40% support against the incumbent’s low-30s share. Traders view this as structural rather than temporary, reflecting the state’s rural electorate and alignment with Liberal Party messaging on agriculture and security. Late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among undecided voters, shifts in evangelical mobilization, or unforeseen national scandals could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited realistic paths for any challenger to overtake him before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 1.4%
Zema <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$10,374 Vol.
$10,374 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
1%
Zema
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.0%
Lula 1.4%
Zema <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
$10,374 Vol.
$10,374 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,782 Vol.
97%
Lula
$1,540 Vol.
1%
Zema
$628 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$495 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$370 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$400 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$413 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$475 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$406 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$449 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$396 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$576 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$444 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 97% implied probability in this market due to Mato Grosso’s entrenched conservative leanings and agribusiness priorities, which delivered decisive margins for his father in 2022. Recent state-level polls from June through early September consistently show him leading Lula by double-digit margins in the first-round vote, often exceeding 40% support against the incumbent’s low-30s share. Traders view this as structural rather than temporary, reflecting the state’s rural electorate and alignment with Liberal Party messaging on agriculture and security. Late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among undecided voters, shifts in evangelical mobilization, or unforeseen national scandals could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited realistic paths for any challenger to overtake him before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$10,374End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 97% implied probability in this market due to Mato Grosso’s entrenched conservative leanings and agribusiness priorities, which delivered decisive margins for his father in 2022. Recent state-level polls from June through early September consistently show him leading Lula by double-digit margins in the first-round vote, often exceeding 40% support against the incumbent’s low-30s share. Traders view this as structural rather than temporary, reflecting the state’s rural electorate and alignment with Liberal Party messaging on agriculture and security. Late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among undecided voters, shifts in evangelical mobilization, or unforeseen national scandals could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited realistic paths for any challenger to overtake him before the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,374End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 97% implied probability in this market due to Mato Grosso’s entrenched conservative leanings and agribusiness priorities, which delivered decisive margins for his father in 2022. Recent state-level polls from June through early September consistently show him leading Lula by double-digit margins in the first-round vote, often exceeding 40% support against the incumbent’s low-30s share. Traders view this as structural rather than temporary, reflecting the state’s rural electorate and alignment with Liberal Party messaging on agriculture and security. Late-campaign developments such as turnout surges among undecided voters, shifts in evangelical mobilization, or unforeseen national scandals could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited realistic paths for any challenger to overtake him before the October 4 first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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