Flávio Bolsonaro’s conditional stance on debates shapes trader expectations for the 2026 Brazilian presidential race. The Liberal Party nominee has publicly stated he will only appear if incumbent President Lula participates, citing a desire to focus exchanges on his main rival and avoid becoming a target for lower-polling candidates. Recent reporting indicates his campaign plans attendance primarily at the final pre-first-round Globo debate, while signaling reluctance for earlier events such as the August 23 Band debate. Lula’s team has similarly weighed limiting appearances, creating uncertainty around joint participation. Other right-wing figures have criticized the approach as detrimental to democratic scrutiny. These dynamics, combined with the October 3 cutoff ahead of the October 4 first round, underpin the current 65.5% implied probability for at least one televised debate involving Flávio Bolsonaro.