The Espírito Santo Senate contest for first place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates because vote fragmentation across parties and no dominant polling leader have kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds. Recent Quaest surveys from May–July 2026 show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24–49 percent depending on the scenario, followed by figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, whose candidacy gained visibility after her father’s endorsement. Incumbent senators seeking reelection, shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, and the dual-seat structure continue to shape the field, with late campaign events or turnout shifts among key regional blocs the most likely catalysts for separation in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCallegari 44%
Professor Fabian 44%
Renato Casagrande 44%
Rose de Freitas 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Callegari
44%
Professor Fabian
44%
Renato Casagrande
44%
Rose de Freitas
44%
Sergio Meneguelli
44%
Rodney Miranda
44%
Maguinha Malta
42%
Leonardo Monjardim
42%
Marcos do Val
42%
Evair de Melo
41%
Fabiano Contarato
41%
Callegari 44%
Professor Fabian 44%
Renato Casagrande 44%
Rose de Freitas 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Callegari
$0 Vol.
44%
Professor Fabian
$0 Vol.
44%
Renato Casagrande
$0 Vol.
44%
Rose de Freitas
$0 Vol.
44%
Sergio Meneguelli
$0 Vol.
44%
Rodney Miranda
$0 Vol.
44%
Maguinha Malta
$0 Vol.
42%
Leonardo Monjardim
$0 Vol.
42%
Marcos do Val
$0 Vol.
42%
Evair de Melo
$0 Vol.
41%
Fabiano Contarato
$0 Vol.
41%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo Senate contest for first place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates because vote fragmentation across parties and no dominant polling leader have kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds. Recent Quaest surveys from May–July 2026 show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24–49 percent depending on the scenario, followed by figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, whose candidacy gained visibility after her father’s endorsement. Incumbent senators seeking reelection, shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, and the dual-seat structure continue to shape the field, with late campaign events or turnout shifts among key regional blocs the most likely catalysts for separation in trader assessments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo Senate contest for first place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates because vote fragmentation across parties and no dominant polling leader have kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds. Recent Quaest surveys from May–July 2026 show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24–49 percent depending on the scenario, followed by figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, whose candidacy gained visibility after her father’s endorsement. Incumbent senators seeking reelection, shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, and the dual-seat structure continue to shape the field, with late campaign events or turnout shifts among key regional blocs the most likely catalysts for separation in trader assessments.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo Senate contest for first place remains tightly contested among more than a dozen registered candidates because vote fragmentation across parties and no dominant polling leader have kept implied probabilities clustered near even odds. Recent Quaest surveys from May–July 2026 show ex-governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24–49 percent depending on the scenario, followed by figures such as Paulo Hartung, Sergio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, Fabiano Contarato, and Maguinha Malta, whose candidacy gained visibility after her father’s endorsement. Incumbent senators seeking reelection, shifting alliances ahead of the October 4 vote, and the dual-seat structure continue to shape the field, with late campaign events or turnout shifts among key regional blocs the most likely catalysts for separation in trader assessments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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