The Espírito Santo federal Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of over a dozen candidates, including incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, former governor Renato Casagrande, and contenders such as Evair de Melo, Maguinha Malta, Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Leonardo Monjardim. Recent polling shows Casagrande leading with roughly one-quarter to one-third support, leaving the second position open amid high undecided rates and vote fragmentation across parties. This structure sustains tight implied probabilities across outcomes, as no single challenger has consolidated opposition support or regional strongholds ahead of the October 4 vote. Developments that could separate contenders include late endorsements, alliance shifts, or turnout patterns in key municipalities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSergio Meneguelli 44%
Evair de Melo 44%
Fabiano Contarato 44%
Professor Fabian 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
44%
Evair de Melo
44%
Fabiano Contarato
44%
Professor Fabian
44%
Callegari
43%
Renato Casagrande
43%
Rodney Miranda
43%
Leonardo Monjardim
43%
Maguinha Malta
43%
Marcos do Val
43%
Rose de Freitas
43%
Sergio Meneguelli 44%
Evair de Melo 44%
Fabiano Contarato 44%
Professor Fabian 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Meneguelli
$0 Vol.
44%
Evair de Melo
$0 Vol.
44%
Fabiano Contarato
$0 Vol.
44%
Professor Fabian
$0 Vol.
44%
Callegari
$0 Vol.
43%
Renato Casagrande
$0 Vol.
43%
Rodney Miranda
$0 Vol.
43%
Leonardo Monjardim
$0 Vol.
43%
Maguinha Malta
$0 Vol.
43%
Marcos do Val
$0 Vol.
43%
Rose de Freitas
$0 Vol.
43%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo federal Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of over a dozen candidates, including incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, former governor Renato Casagrande, and contenders such as Evair de Melo, Maguinha Malta, Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Leonardo Monjardim. Recent polling shows Casagrande leading with roughly one-quarter to one-third support, leaving the second position open amid high undecided rates and vote fragmentation across parties. This structure sustains tight implied probabilities across outcomes, as no single challenger has consolidated opposition support or regional strongholds ahead of the October 4 vote. Developments that could separate contenders include late endorsements, alliance shifts, or turnout patterns in key municipalities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Espírito Santo federal Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of over a dozen candidates, including incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, former governor Renato Casagrande, and contenders such as Evair de Melo, Maguinha Malta, Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Leonardo Monjardim. Recent polling shows Casagrande leading with roughly one-quarter to one-third support, leaving the second position open amid high undecided rates and vote fragmentation across parties. This structure sustains tight implied probabilities across outcomes, as no single challenger has consolidated opposition support or regional strongholds ahead of the October 4 vote. Developments that could separate contenders include late endorsements, alliance shifts, or turnout patterns in key municipalities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo federal Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of over a dozen candidates, including incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val, former governor Renato Casagrande, and contenders such as Evair de Melo, Maguinha Malta, Sérgio Meneguelli, Rose de Freitas, and Leonardo Monjardim. Recent polling shows Casagrande leading with roughly one-quarter to one-third support, leaving the second position open amid high undecided rates and vote fragmentation across parties. This structure sustains tight implied probabilities across outcomes, as no single challenger has consolidated opposition support or regional strongholds ahead of the October 4 vote. Developments that could separate contenders include late endorsements, alliance shifts, or turnout patterns in key municipalities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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