In Brazil's Rondônia Senate race, scheduled for October 4, 2026, traders see a tightly contested battle for second place amid a fragmented field of pre-candidates. Recent court rulings clearing Acir Gurgacz to run have kept him competitive at 28.5% implied probability, while Dr. Fernando Máximo, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid, and Sílvia Cristina hover near 22-28% based on July polling showing Máximo leading but the second slot undecided. Multiple parties field viable contenders including Mariana Carvalho and Engenheiro Thulio, with no dominant coalition or endorsement shifting the balance yet. This distribution reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing an open contest where turnout patterns, late alliances, and campaign momentum in the final weeks could separate the top contenders before votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Neidinha 44%
Sílvia Cristina 42%
Acir Gurgacz 29%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 29%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Neidinha
44%
Sílvia Cristina
42%
Acir Gurgacz
29%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
29%
Engenheiro Thulio
28%
Mariana Carvalho
27%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
24%
Aires Mota
22%
Luis Fernando
22%
Luciana Oliveira
21%
Neidinha 44%
Sílvia Cristina 42%
Acir Gurgacz 29%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 29%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Neidinha
$0 Vol.
44%
Sílvia Cristina
$0 Vol.
42%
Acir Gurgacz
$0 Vol.
29%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
$0 Vol.
29%
Engenheiro Thulio
$0 Vol.
28%
Mariana Carvalho
$0 Vol.
27%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
$0 Vol.
24%
Aires Mota
$0 Vol.
22%
Luis Fernando
$0 Vol.
22%
Luciana Oliveira
$0 Vol.
21%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Brazil's Rondônia Senate race, scheduled for October 4, 2026, traders see a tightly contested battle for second place amid a fragmented field of pre-candidates. Recent court rulings clearing Acir Gurgacz to run have kept him competitive at 28.5% implied probability, while Dr. Fernando Máximo, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid, and Sílvia Cristina hover near 22-28% based on July polling showing Máximo leading but the second slot undecided. Multiple parties field viable contenders including Mariana Carvalho and Engenheiro Thulio, with no dominant coalition or endorsement shifting the balance yet. This distribution reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing an open contest where turnout patterns, late alliances, and campaign momentum in the final weeks could separate the top contenders before votes are cast.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Brazil's Rondônia Senate race, scheduled for October 4, 2026, traders see a tightly contested battle for second place amid a fragmented field of pre-candidates. Recent court rulings clearing Acir Gurgacz to run have kept him competitive at 28.5% implied probability, while Dr. Fernando Máximo, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid, and Sílvia Cristina hover near 22-28% based on July polling showing Máximo leading but the second slot undecided. Multiple parties field viable contenders including Mariana Carvalho and Engenheiro Thulio, with no dominant coalition or endorsement shifting the balance yet. This distribution reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing an open contest where turnout patterns, late alliances, and campaign momentum in the final weeks could separate the top contenders before votes are cast.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In Brazil's Rondônia Senate race, scheduled for October 4, 2026, traders see a tightly contested battle for second place amid a fragmented field of pre-candidates. Recent court rulings clearing Acir Gurgacz to run have kept him competitive at 28.5% implied probability, while Dr. Fernando Máximo, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid, and Sílvia Cristina hover near 22-28% based on July polling showing Máximo leading but the second slot undecided. Multiple parties field viable contenders including Mariana Carvalho and Engenheiro Thulio, with no dominant coalition or endorsement shifting the balance yet. This distribution reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing an open contest where turnout patterns, late alliances, and campaign momentum in the final weeks could separate the top contenders before votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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