Skip to main content
icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí

Lula 68%

Rui Costa Pimenta 24%

Ronaldo Caiado 23%

Hertz Dias 22%

Polymarket
NEW

Lula 68%

Rui Costa Pimenta 24%

Ronaldo Caiado 23%

Hertz Dias 22%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Lula

Lula

$318 Vol.

68%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$44 Vol.

24%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$44 Vol.

23%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$44 Vol.

22%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$44 Vol.

18%

icon for Zema

Zema

$114 Vol.

3%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$118 Vol.

3%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$114 Vol.

3%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$114 Vol.

2%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$87 Vol.

1%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$87 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$44 Vol.

22%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$44 Vol.

20%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position at 74% reflects Piauí's longstanding pattern as a northeastern stronghold for Workers' Party candidates, reinforced by his formal nomination with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate ahead of the October 4 first round. National polls from August place Lula in the 38-44% range overall, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 28-35% and figures like Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema in low single digits, yet regional dynamics amplify Lula's edge in states with strong PT loyalty. Recent campaign events, including Lula's convention and opposition family reconciliations, have not altered this state-level consensus, while lower odds for alternatives like Hertz Dias or Pablo Marçal align with limited local traction and the fragmented right-wing field. Trader pricing captures these structural and polling factors as the race enters its final weeks.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$1,198
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding position at 74% reflects Piauí's longstanding pattern as a northeastern stronghold for Workers' Party candidates, reinforced by his formal nomination with Geraldo Alckmin as running mate ahead of the October 4 first round. National polls from August place Lula in the 38-44% range overall, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing at 28-35% and figures like Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema in low single digits, yet regional dynamics amplify Lula's edge in states with strong PT loyalty. Recent campaign events, including Lula's convention and opposition family reconciliations, have not altered this state-level consensus, while lower odds for alternatives like Hertz Dias or Pablo Marçal align with limited local traction and the fragmented right-wing field. Trader pricing captures these structural and polling factors as the race enters its final weeks.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$1,198
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?

Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraíba?

46%
icon for Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?

46%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

71%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 68%, followed by "Rui Costa Pimenta" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 68¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí" is "Lula" at 68%, meaning the market assigns a 68% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rui Costa Pimenta" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Piauí" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.