Lula maintains a commanding 93% implied probability among traders to finish first in Paraíba’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by the incumbent Workers’ Party leader’s entrenched regional base in Brazil’s Northeast. Consistent national polling from August 2026 shows Lula holding 38–44% support ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and a fragmented field of single-digit challengers, a pattern amplified locally by historical PT strength and limited traction for outsiders such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Renan Santos. No major campaign shifts, endorsements, or state-specific developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health development, or unexpected consolidation around a regional alternative within the narrow window before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 93%
Pablo Marçal 3.9%
Edmilson Costa 3.5%
Renan Santos 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
93%
Pablo Marçal
4%
Edmilson Costa
4%
Renan Santos
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
4%
Zema
4%
Clariana Barao
4%
Flavio Bolsonaro
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
4%
Samara
3%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
3%
Hertz Dias
3%
Escritor Augusto Cury
2%
Lula 93%
Pablo Marçal 3.9%
Edmilson Costa 3.5%
Renan Santos 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$709 Vol.
93%
Pablo Marçal
$193 Vol.
4%
Edmilson Costa
$193 Vol.
4%
Renan Santos
$193 Vol.
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
$193 Vol.
4%
Zema
$193 Vol.
4%
Clariana Barao
$193 Vol.
4%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$193 Vol.
4%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$193 Vol.
4%
Samara
$193 Vol.
3%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$193 Vol.
3%
Hertz Dias
$145 Vol.
3%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$155 Vol.
2%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding 93% implied probability among traders to finish first in Paraíba’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by the incumbent Workers’ Party leader’s entrenched regional base in Brazil’s Northeast. Consistent national polling from August 2026 shows Lula holding 38–44% support ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and a fragmented field of single-digit challengers, a pattern amplified locally by historical PT strength and limited traction for outsiders such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Renan Santos. No major campaign shifts, endorsements, or state-specific developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health development, or unexpected consolidation around a regional alternative within the narrow window before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$2,940End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding 93% implied probability among traders to finish first in Paraíba’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by the incumbent Workers’ Party leader’s entrenched regional base in Brazil’s Northeast. Consistent national polling from August 2026 shows Lula holding 38–44% support ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and a fragmented field of single-digit challengers, a pattern amplified locally by historical PT strength and limited traction for outsiders such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Renan Santos. No major campaign shifts, endorsements, or state-specific developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health development, or unexpected consolidation around a regional alternative within the narrow window before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$2,940End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding 93% implied probability among traders to finish first in Paraíba’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by the incumbent Workers’ Party leader’s entrenched regional base in Brazil’s Northeast. Consistent national polling from August 2026 shows Lula holding 38–44% support ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro and a fragmented field of single-digit challengers, a pattern amplified locally by historical PT strength and limited traction for outsiders such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, or Renan Santos. No major campaign shifts, endorsements, or state-specific developments have altered this positioning in recent weeks. Realistic challenges remain narrow and would require late-breaking events such as a significant scandal, health development, or unexpected consolidation around a regional alternative within the narrow window before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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