The closely matched probabilities around 44-50% across dozens of candidates for first place in Paraná reflect a highly fragmented field two months before the October 4 first round. National polling shows Lula maintaining a modest edge over Flávio Bolsonaro, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos splitting smaller shares, but state-level data remain limited and undecided voters exceed 10% in recent surveys. Regional dynamics in agribusiness-heavy Paraná, combined with the absence of a clear local favorite after figures like Ratinho Júnior focused elsewhere, keep support dispersed. Late campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative or independent voters, and any further consolidation among center-right options could quickly reorder standings in this key battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Edmilson Costa 44.1%
Hertz Dias 44.1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 44%
Lula 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Edmilson Costa
44%
Hertz Dias
44%
Flavio Bolsonaro
44%
Lula
44%
Pablo Marçal
44%
Renan Santos
44%
Ronaldo Caiado
44%
Rui Costa Pimenta
44%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
44%
Zema
44%
Escritor Augusto Cury
44%
Clariana Barao
44%
Samara
42%
Edmilson Costa 44.1%
Hertz Dias 44.1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 44%
Lula 44%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Edmilson Costa
$0 Vol.
44%
Hertz Dias
$0 Vol.
44%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$0 Vol.
44%
Lula
$0 Vol.
44%
Pablo Marçal
$0 Vol.
44%
Renan Santos
$0 Vol.
44%
Ronaldo Caiado
$0 Vol.
44%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$0 Vol.
44%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$0 Vol.
44%
Zema
$0 Vol.
44%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$0 Vol.
44%
Clariana Barao
$0 Vol.
44%
Samara
$20 Vol.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The closely matched probabilities around 44-50% across dozens of candidates for first place in Paraná reflect a highly fragmented field two months before the October 4 first round. National polling shows Lula maintaining a modest edge over Flávio Bolsonaro, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos splitting smaller shares, but state-level data remain limited and undecided voters exceed 10% in recent surveys. Regional dynamics in agribusiness-heavy Paraná, combined with the absence of a clear local favorite after figures like Ratinho Júnior focused elsewhere, keep support dispersed. Late campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative or independent voters, and any further consolidation among center-right options could quickly reorder standings in this key battleground.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The closely matched probabilities around 44-50% across dozens of candidates for first place in Paraná reflect a highly fragmented field two months before the October 4 first round. National polling shows Lula maintaining a modest edge over Flávio Bolsonaro, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos splitting smaller shares, but state-level data remain limited and undecided voters exceed 10% in recent surveys. Regional dynamics in agribusiness-heavy Paraná, combined with the absence of a clear local favorite after figures like Ratinho Júnior focused elsewhere, keep support dispersed. Late campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative or independent voters, and any further consolidation among center-right options could quickly reorder standings in this key battleground.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 44-50% across dozens of candidates for first place in Paraná reflect a highly fragmented field two months before the October 4 first round. National polling shows Lula maintaining a modest edge over Flávio Bolsonaro, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos splitting smaller shares, but state-level data remain limited and undecided voters exceed 10% in recent surveys. Regional dynamics in agribusiness-heavy Paraná, combined with the absence of a clear local favorite after figures like Ratinho Júnior focused elsewhere, keep support dispersed. Late campaign events, turnout shifts among conservative or independent voters, and any further consolidation among center-right options could quickly reorder standings in this key battleground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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