Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul

Flavio Bolsonaro 96.8%

Samara 1.1%

Clariana Barao 1.0%

Lula <1%

Polymarket

$10,672 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 96.8%

Samara 1.1%

Clariana Barao 1.0%

Lula <1%

Polymarket

$10,672 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$6,113 Vol.

97%

icon for Samara

Samara

$343 Vol.

1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$348 Vol.

1%

icon for Lula

Lula

$518 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$403 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$400 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$354 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$407 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$313 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$278 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$363 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$441 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$390 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul first-round polling for the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election, driven by consistent double-digit advantages over incumbent Lula in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time and AtlasIntel. The state’s agribusiness economy, conservative electorate, and strong prior support for Jair Bolsonaro have transferred to his son and Liberal Party candidate, reinforced by endorsements including from Governor Eduardo Riedel. Low single-digit showings for alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury have limited vote fragmentation. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors while acknowledging that shifts among undecided voters or late campaign developments within the narrow resolution window could still alter the outcome.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,672
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Mato Grosso do Sul first-round polling for the October 2026 Brazilian presidential election, driven by consistent double-digit advantages over incumbent Lula in recent surveys from institutes such as Real Time and AtlasIntel. The state’s agribusiness economy, conservative electorate, and strong prior support for Jair Bolsonaro have transferred to his son and Liberal Party candidate, reinforced by endorsements including from Governor Eduardo Riedel. Low single-digit showings for alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury have limited vote fragmentation. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors while acknowledging that shifts among undecided voters or late campaign developments within the narrow resolution window could still alter the outcome.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,672
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?

97%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio Grande do Sul?

91%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

97%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 97%, followed by "Samara" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" has generated $10.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Samara" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.