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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte

Lula 97.4%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$10,567 Vol.

Lula 97.4%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket

$10,567 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$3,275 Vol.

97%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$621 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$621 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$571 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$621 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$571 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$571 Vol.

<1%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$621 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$621 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$621 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$612 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$621 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$621 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a dominant position in Rio Grande do Norte first-round voting intentions according to recent state polls, reflecting entrenched regional support for the PT in the Northeast, where approval for his administration remains higher than national averages. Multiple surveys from September 2026 show him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 18–29 points in the state, with other registered candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos trailing far behind. This gap stems from longstanding voter alignments, coalition dynamics favoring the incumbent, and limited opposition penetration in the region ahead of the October 4 first round. A late surge by any challenger would require substantial shifts in turnout or unforeseen events to alter the current trader consensus.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,567
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a dominant position in Rio Grande do Norte first-round voting intentions according to recent state polls, reflecting entrenched regional support for the PT in the Northeast, where approval for his administration remains higher than national averages. Multiple surveys from September 2026 show him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 18–29 points in the state, with other registered candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos trailing far behind. This gap stems from longstanding voter alignments, coalition dynamics favoring the incumbent, and limited opposition penetration in the region ahead of the October 4 first round. A late surge by any challenger would require substantial shifts in turnout or unforeseen events to alter the current trader consensus.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,567
End Date
Jul 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lula" at 97%, followed by "Edmilson Costa" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte" has generated $10.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte" is "Lula" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Edmilson Costa" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.