The crowded field and sparse Maranhão-specific polling have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered near 50 percent for dozens of candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. National surveys show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading overall, with Flávio Bolsonaro as the main right-wing contender, yet regional voting patterns in the Northeast often diverge due to local alliances, gubernatorial influence, and turnout among PT strongholds. Recent AtlasIntel data for the state and national trends indicate limited consolidation behind any single name, with smaller candidates and independents fragmenting support further. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in evangelical or rural blocs could quickly separate frontrunners in this low-information environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Maranhão
Escritor Augusto Cury 49%
Hertz Dias 49%
Lula 49%
Samara 49%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Escritor Augusto Cury
49%
Hertz Dias
49%
Lula
49%
Samara
49%
Renan Santos
48%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
47%
Clariana Barao
46%
Flavio Bolsonaro
46%
Pablo Marçal
45%
Ronaldo Caiado
45%
Zema
45%
Edmilson Costa
45%
Rui Costa Pimenta
45%
Escritor Augusto Cury 49%
Hertz Dias 49%
Lula 49%
Samara 49%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Escritor Augusto Cury
$0 Vol.
49%
Hertz Dias
$0 Vol.
49%
Lula
$0 Vol.
49%
Samara
$0 Vol.
49%
Renan Santos
$0 Vol.
48%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$0 Vol.
47%
Clariana Barao
$0 Vol.
46%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$0 Vol.
46%
Pablo Marçal
$0 Vol.
45%
Ronaldo Caiado
$0 Vol.
45%
Zema
$0 Vol.
45%
Edmilson Costa
$0 Vol.
45%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$0 Vol.
45%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The crowded field and sparse Maranhão-specific polling have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered near 50 percent for dozens of candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. National surveys show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading overall, with Flávio Bolsonaro as the main right-wing contender, yet regional voting patterns in the Northeast often diverge due to local alliances, gubernatorial influence, and turnout among PT strongholds. Recent AtlasIntel data for the state and national trends indicate limited consolidation behind any single name, with smaller candidates and independents fragmenting support further. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in evangelical or rural blocs could quickly separate frontrunners in this low-information environment.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).The crowded field and sparse Maranhão-specific polling have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered near 50 percent for dozens of candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. National surveys show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading overall, with Flávio Bolsonaro as the main right-wing contender, yet regional voting patterns in the Northeast often diverge due to local alliances, gubernatorial influence, and turnout among PT strongholds. Recent AtlasIntel data for the state and national trends indicate limited consolidation behind any single name, with smaller candidates and independents fragmenting support further. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in evangelical or rural blocs could quickly separate frontrunners in this low-information environment.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Maranhão.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The crowded field and sparse Maranhão-specific polling have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered near 50 percent for dozens of candidates ahead of the October 4 first round. National surveys show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading overall, with Flávio Bolsonaro as the main right-wing contender, yet regional voting patterns in the Northeast often diverge due to local alliances, gubernatorial influence, and turnout among PT strongholds. Recent AtlasIntel data for the state and national trends indicate limited consolidation behind any single name, with smaller candidates and independents fragmenting support further. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in evangelical or rural blocs could quickly separate frontrunners in this low-information environment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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