Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCarlos Portinho 22%
André Monteiro 21%
Monica Benicio 21%
Vinicius Benevides 21%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Portinho
22%
André Monteiro
21%
Monica Benicio
21%
Vinicius Benevides
21%
Marcelo Crivella
20%
Marcos Dias
19%
Luiz Eugenio
19%
Carlos Jordy
19%
Helio Secco
19%
Luciano Mattos
19%
Waguinho
19%
Paula Falcão
19%
Ó Clemente
17%
Michelly Xavier
17%
Pedro Paulo
19%
Benedita da Silva
24%
Carlos Portinho 22%
André Monteiro 21%
Monica Benicio 21%
Vinicius Benevides 21%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Portinho
$41 Vol.
22%
André Monteiro
$41 Vol.
21%
Monica Benicio
$41 Vol.
21%
Vinicius Benevides
$41 Vol.
21%
Marcelo Crivella
$41 Vol.
20%
Marcos Dias
$41 Vol.
19%
Luiz Eugenio
$80 Vol.
19%
Carlos Jordy
$41 Vol.
19%
Helio Secco
$41 Vol.
19%
Luciano Mattos
$41 Vol.
19%
Waguinho
$41 Vol.
19%
Paula Falcão
$41 Vol.
19%
Ó Clemente
$41 Vol.
17%
Michelly Xavier
$78 Vol.
17%
Pedro Paulo
$41 Vol.
19%
Benedita da Silva
$61 Vol.
24%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Volume
$752End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$752End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from July shows Benedita da Silva (PT) maintaining a clear lead for one of Rio de Janeiro’s two Senate seats, while the contest for second place remains fragmented among Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Carlos Portinho (PL), Márcio Canella (União), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and several others, each polling in the low single digits amid 59-61% undecided or blank responses. With roughly seven weeks until the October vote and limited new surveys since late July, traders see no candidate pulling ahead decisively. High voter indecision, the absence of a unifying right-leaning alternative, and potential late shifts from endorsements or campaign events continue to keep implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions