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icon for Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place

Renato Jaguarão 42%

Sanderson 40%

Milton Cardoso 39%

Pimenta 24%

Polymarket
NEW

Renato Jaguarão 42%

Sanderson 40%

Milton Cardoso 39%

Pimenta 24%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Renato Jaguarão

Renato Jaguarão

$20 Vol.

42%

icon for Sanderson

Sanderson

$20 Vol.

40%

icon for Milton Cardoso

Milton Cardoso

$20 Vol.

39%

icon for Pimenta

Pimenta

$20 Vol.

24%

icon for Marcel Van Hattem

Marcel Van Hattem

$20 Vol.

23%

icon for Rigotto

Rigotto

$20 Vol.

23%

icon for Frederico Antunes

Frederico Antunes

$20 Vol.

22%

icon for Manuela D'Ávila

Manuela D'Ávila

$20 Vol.

19%

icon for Ric Jones

Ric Jones

$59 Vol.

8%

icon for Luciano do MLB

Luciano do MLB

$101 Vol.

8%

icon for Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

Daniela Mulheres Socialistas

$71 Vol.

8%

icon for Regis Ethur

Regis Ethur

$87 Vol.

7%

icon for Tania Peres

Tania Peres

$280 Vol.

24%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for one of two open seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 2026 vote, with recent Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie among five or more contenders within the margin of error. Leading options such as Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) sit in a tight cluster, reflecting divided voter preferences across left, center, and right-leaning coalitions without a dominant frontrunner. Trader pricing around 50% for numerous candidates captures this uncertainty, driven by the absence of incumbents, fluid party alliances, and limited differentiation on key state issues like economic recovery and federal relations. Further polling shifts or coalition consolidations before the first round could separate the field for second place.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$757
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Rio Grande do Sul Senate race for one of two open seats remains highly fragmented heading into the October 2026 vote, with recent Quaest and other surveys showing a technical tie among five or more contenders within the margin of error. Leading options such as Manuela D'Ávila (PSOL), Germano Rigotto (MDB), Paulo Pimenta (PT), Marcel Van Hattem (Novo), and Ubiratan Sanderson (PL) sit in a tight cluster, reflecting divided voter preferences across left, center, and right-leaning coalitions without a dominant frontrunner. Trader pricing around 50% for numerous candidates captures this uncertainty, driven by the absence of incumbents, fluid party alliances, and limited differentiation on key state issues like economic recovery and federal relations. Further polling shifts or coalition consolidations before the first round could separate the field for second place.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$757
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Renato Jaguarão" at 42%, followed by "Sanderson" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Renato Jaguarão" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sanderson" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio Grande do Sul Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.