Marcel Van Hattem (Novo) holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for second place in the Rio Grande do Sul Senate race due to consistent late-campaign polling strength and his established conservative-liberal voter base. September surveys, including Real Time Big Data, placed him at or near the top of combined first- and second-choice intentions, often ahead of or statistically tied with Sanderson (PL) while outpacing Manuela D’Ávila (PSOL) and Paulo Pimenta (PT). His performance in the October 4 first-round vote—securing roughly 30.08% to finish immediately behind Sanderson—solidified this positioning ahead of remaining candidates. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include formal vote audits, recounts in key municipalities, or successful legal challenges to ballot validity, though such actions have rarely overturned certified tallies in recent Brazilian Senate contests.