Skip to main content
icon for Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Global Elections

Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place

icon for Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place
Politics·Global Elections

Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place

Ciro Nogueira 43%

Antônio José Lira 42%

Marcelo Castro 41%

Maria Madalena Nunes 41%

Polymarket
NEW

Ciro Nogueira 43%

Antônio José Lira 42%

Marcelo Castro 41%

Maria Madalena Nunes 41%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Ciro Nogueira

Ciro Nogueira

$63 Vol.

43%

icon for Antônio José Lira

Antônio José Lira

$63 Vol.

42%

icon for Marcelo Castro

Marcelo Castro

$63 Vol.

41%

icon for Maria Madalena Nunes

Maria Madalena Nunes

$63 Vol.

41%

icon for Missionário Evandro Craveiro

Missionário Evandro Craveiro

$63 Vol.

41%

icon for Toinho Dufrango

Toinho Dufrango

$63 Vol.

40%

icon for Jorge Lopes

Jorge Lopes

$63 Vol.

40%

icon for Major Paulo Roberto

Major Paulo Roberto

$63 Vol.

39%

icon for Francinaldo Leão

Francinaldo Leão

$63 Vol.

39%

icon for Jardenya Bezerra

Jardenya Bezerra

$63 Vol.

39%

icon for Pastor Sena

Pastor Sena

$63 Vol.

39%

icon for Tiago Junqueira

Tiago Junqueira

$63 Vol.

37%

icon for Cloves José

Cloves José

$63 Vol.

37%

icon for Danniel Rocha

Danniel Rocha

$63 Vol.

36%

icon for Julio Cesar

Julio Cesar

$63 Vol.

35%

icon for Antônio Barros

Antônio Barros

$63 Vol.

35%

icon for Irmão Evandro Marques

Irmão Evandro Marques

$63 Vol.

35%

icon for Dionisio Carvalho

Dionisio Carvalho

$63 Vol.

34%

icon for Alexandre Mariano

Alexandre Mariano

$63 Vol.

32%

icon for Pedro Laurentino

Pedro Laurentino

$63 Vol.

40%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Piauí Senate race for the two seats contested in Brazil's 2026 elections, trader sentiment reflects a fragmented field of roughly 20 registered candidates after party conventions. Recent AtlasIntel polling from July shows Marcelo Castro (MDB) at 20.4% in first, followed closely by Ciro Nogueira (PP) at 15.3% and Júlio César (PSD) at 14.7%, with the remainder scattered and high undecided or blank shares. This produces technical ties among the top three for the available positions, keeping second-place probabilities clustered and sensitive to small shifts in voter preference or turnout among center-right and centrist blocs. Late-campaign events such as additional polling releases, alliances, or regional mobilization could separate contenders by clarifying which candidate consolidates enough support to claim the runner-up slot ahead of the October vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,260
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Piauí Senate race for the two seats contested in Brazil's 2026 elections, trader sentiment reflects a fragmented field of roughly 20 registered candidates after party conventions. Recent AtlasIntel polling from July shows Marcelo Castro (MDB) at 20.4% in first, followed closely by Ciro Nogueira (PP) at 15.3% and Júlio César (PSD) at 14.7%, with the remainder scattered and high undecided or blank shares. This produces technical ties among the top three for the available positions, keeping second-place probabilities clustered and sensitive to small shifts in voter preference or turnout among center-right and centrist blocs. Late-campaign events such as additional polling releases, alliances, or regional mobilization could separate contenders by clarifying which candidate consolidates enough support to claim the runner-up slot ahead of the October vote.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$1,260
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Piauí is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Jorge Lopes win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?

Will Jorge Lopes win the most votes in the 2026 Piauí Senate election?

36%
icon for Will Joao Azevêdo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?

Will Joao Azevêdo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?

45%
icon for Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Will Simone Tebet win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

46%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ciro Nogueira" at 43%, followed by "Antônio José Lira" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Ciro Nogueira" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Antônio José Lira" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Piauí Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.