Recent state-level polling in Amapá shows incumbent President Lula holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round presidential voting intentions, with both candidates in the low-to-mid 30s and a sizable share of undecided or blank/null voters. This tight local margin aligns with national trends where Lula maintains a modest edge, though state surveys indicate technical ties or small gaps within margins of error. Campaign dynamics, including ongoing efforts to mobilize regional bases ahead of the October 4 first round, sustain uncertainty over final turnout and preference shifts. Traders price Lula as the consensus frontrunner for top spot in the state while assigning Flávio meaningful probability of leading, reflecting the competitive positioning and potential for late movement among the remaining electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 55%
Flavio Bolsonaro 45%
Hertz Dias <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$19,904 Vol.
$19,904 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
55%
Flavio Bolsonaro
45%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 55%
Flavio Bolsonaro 45%
Hertz Dias <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$19,904 Vol.
$19,904 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,392 Vol.
55%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,199 Vol.
45%
Hertz Dias
$1,359 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,565 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$750 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$821 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$1,086 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$872 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$1,071 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$1,020 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$735 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$1,009 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Amapá shows incumbent President Lula holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round presidential voting intentions, with both candidates in the low-to-mid 30s and a sizable share of undecided or blank/null voters. This tight local margin aligns with national trends where Lula maintains a modest edge, though state surveys indicate technical ties or small gaps within margins of error. Campaign dynamics, including ongoing efforts to mobilize regional bases ahead of the October 4 first round, sustain uncertainty over final turnout and preference shifts. Traders price Lula as the consensus frontrunner for top spot in the state while assigning Flávio meaningful probability of leading, reflecting the competitive positioning and potential for late movement among the remaining electorate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$19,904End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Amapá shows incumbent President Lula holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round presidential voting intentions, with both candidates in the low-to-mid 30s and a sizable share of undecided or blank/null voters. This tight local margin aligns with national trends where Lula maintains a modest edge, though state surveys indicate technical ties or small gaps within margins of error. Campaign dynamics, including ongoing efforts to mobilize regional bases ahead of the October 4 first round, sustain uncertainty over final turnout and preference shifts. Traders price Lula as the consensus frontrunner for top spot in the state while assigning Flávio meaningful probability of leading, reflecting the competitive positioning and potential for late movement among the remaining electorate.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,904End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent state-level polling in Amapá shows incumbent President Lula holding a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round presidential voting intentions, with both candidates in the low-to-mid 30s and a sizable share of undecided or blank/null voters. This tight local margin aligns with national trends where Lula maintains a modest edge, though state surveys indicate technical ties or small gaps within margins of error. Campaign dynamics, including ongoing efforts to mobilize regional bases ahead of the October 4 first round, sustain uncertainty over final turnout and preference shifts. Traders price Lula as the consensus frontrunner for top spot in the state while assigning Flávio meaningful probability of leading, reflecting the competitive positioning and potential for late movement among the remaining electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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