**Recent polling in the Tocantins Senate race shows Eduardo Gomes (PL) as the clear frontrunner for one seat, leaving a competitive contest for second place among Alexandre Guimarães (MDB), Carlos Gaguim (União Brasil), Eli Borges (Republicanos), and a smaller group of contenders.** Surveys from late September into early October, including those by Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and Paraná Pesquisas, place Guimarães, Gaguim, and Borges in a narrow band for the remaining seat, with Guimarães often edging ahead in consolidated or first-vote scenarios. The unique 2026 dynamic—voters selecting two distinct candidates—amplifies focus on second-choice strategies, municipal alliances, and turnout among undecided voters. This uncertainty, with many still open to shifting preferences days before the October 4 vote, underpins the market's pricing of a tight second-place outcome.