In the fragmented Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats, trader consensus reflects a highly competitive battle for second place behind frontrunner Marília Arraes. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and others show Humberto Costa, Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte, and Túlio Gadêlha clustered in the 11-20% range, with several additional names including Paulo Rubem Santiago, Samuel Timóteo, and Pastor Gilvan Costa holding smaller but meaningful shares. Party alliances, regional voter blocs, and undecided voters have prevented any single challenger from pulling ahead decisively. A late-August Datafolha survey and subsequent polling, combined with campaign events through early October, could shift momentum among these contenders and clarify positioning ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTúlio Gadêlha 44%
Samuel Timoteo 43%
Pastor Gilvan Costa 43%
Mariano Macedo 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Túlio Gadêlha
44%
Samuel Timoteo
43%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
43%
Mariano Macedo
42%
Carlos Sant'Anna
41%
Eduardo da Fonte
41%
Mendonça Filho
41%
Gorett Bitu
41%
Humberto Costa
40%
Mailson da Silva Neto
40%
Marília Arraes
40%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
39%
Túlio Gadêlha 44%
Samuel Timoteo 43%
Pastor Gilvan Costa 43%
Mariano Macedo 42%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Túlio Gadêlha
$0 Vol.
44%
Samuel Timoteo
$0 Vol.
43%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$0 Vol.
43%
Mariano Macedo
$0 Vol.
42%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$0 Vol.
41%
Eduardo da Fonte
$0 Vol.
41%
Mendonça Filho
$0 Vol.
41%
Gorett Bitu
$0 Vol.
41%
Humberto Costa
$0 Vol.
40%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$0 Vol.
40%
Marília Arraes
$0 Vol.
40%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$0 Vol.
39%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the fragmented Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats, trader consensus reflects a highly competitive battle for second place behind frontrunner Marília Arraes. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and others show Humberto Costa, Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte, and Túlio Gadêlha clustered in the 11-20% range, with several additional names including Paulo Rubem Santiago, Samuel Timóteo, and Pastor Gilvan Costa holding smaller but meaningful shares. Party alliances, regional voter blocs, and undecided voters have prevented any single challenger from pulling ahead decisively. A late-August Datafolha survey and subsequent polling, combined with campaign events through early October, could shift momentum among these contenders and clarify positioning ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the fragmented Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats, trader consensus reflects a highly competitive battle for second place behind frontrunner Marília Arraes. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and others show Humberto Costa, Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte, and Túlio Gadêlha clustered in the 11-20% range, with several additional names including Paulo Rubem Santiago, Samuel Timóteo, and Pastor Gilvan Costa holding smaller but meaningful shares. Party alliances, regional voter blocs, and undecided voters have prevented any single challenger from pulling ahead decisively. A late-August Datafolha survey and subsequent polling, combined with campaign events through early October, could shift momentum among these contenders and clarify positioning ahead of the October 4 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the fragmented Pernambuco Senate race for the two seats, trader consensus reflects a highly competitive battle for second place behind frontrunner Marília Arraes. Recent polls from Real Time Big Data and others show Humberto Costa, Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte, and Túlio Gadêlha clustered in the 11-20% range, with several additional names including Paulo Rubem Santiago, Samuel Timóteo, and Pastor Gilvan Costa holding smaller but meaningful shares. Party alliances, regional voter blocs, and undecided voters have prevented any single challenger from pulling ahead decisively. A late-August Datafolha survey and subsequent polling, combined with campaign events through early October, could shift momentum among these contenders and clarify positioning ahead of the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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