Flávio Bolsonaro remains under a Supreme Federal Court-authorized Federal Police inquiry opened in July 2026 into alleged money laundering, corruption, and capital flight tied to financing the “Dark Horse” biopic via disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro. The probe, unsealed in September, is still at the investigative stage with no formal denunciation or charges filed. As a sitting senator, Bolsonaro benefits from parliamentary immunity that generally bars arrest absent flagrante delicto for an unaffordable offense or a final conviction. Recent developments center on his presidential campaign ahead of the October 4 first round rather than accelerated judicial action, and a separate October inquiry into a 2021 BRB loan has not altered the timeline. Traders therefore price an 86.5% chance the “No” outcome holds through October 31.