**Flávio Bolsonaro’s strong performance in Brazil’s October 2026 elections and the resulting conservative congressional majority are the main drivers behind the 79% Yes odds.** Flávio advanced to the October 25 presidential runoff against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after securing 47% in the first round, while his Partido Liberal gained the largest blocs in both chambers of Congress. Flávio has repeatedly pledged an immediate presidential pardon (indulto or graça) or support for legislative amnesty upon taking office in January 2027, measures that could take effect within days and fall well before the March 31, 2027 cutoff. Jair Bolsonaro’s 2025 conviction to over 27 years for coup-plotting and related 8 January 2023 offenses makes him eligible for these constitutional tools, though any decree could face Supreme Court scrutiny. Recent legislative efforts to ease sentences and the new Congress’s composition further support the market’s assessment of high likelihood for resolution via executive action or congressional vote.