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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 33%

Ronaldo Caiado 31%

Renan Santos 26%

Augusto Cury 25%

Polymarket
NEW

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 33%

Ronaldo Caiado 31%

Renan Santos 26%

Augusto Cury 25%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$28 Vol.

33%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$78 Vol.

43%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$58 Vol.

37%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$51 Vol.

25%

icon for Zema

Zema

$28 Vol.

12%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$118 Vol.

8%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$118 Vol.

8%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$117 Vol.

8%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$28 Vol.

6%

icon for Samara

Samara

$28 Vol.

6%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$48 Vol.

5%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$28 Vol.

5%

icon for Lula

Lula

$128 Vol.

5%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows a polarized contest between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who consistently lead with roughly 37–45% and 33–42% support respectively and are expected to claim first and second place. This leaves a fragmented field of smaller candidates competing for third and fourth, including writer Augusto Cury, former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado, activist Renan Santos, and others polling in the low single digits. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with Caiado, Santos, and Cury holding the highest implied probabilities for fourth place amid recent volatility in their support levels driven by social media reach, regional name recognition, and limited national visibility. The narrow gaps among these contenders, combined with high undecided and null ballot shares near election day, sustain tight odds while any late shifts in turnout or media momentum could reorder the lower rankings.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$855
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows a polarized contest between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who consistently lead with roughly 37–45% and 33–42% support respectively and are expected to claim first and second place. This leaves a fragmented field of smaller candidates competing for third and fourth, including writer Augusto Cury, former Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado, activist Renan Santos, and others polling in the low single digits. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with Caiado, Santos, and Cury holding the highest implied probabilities for fourth place amid recent volatility in their support levels driven by social media reach, regional name recognition, and limited national visibility. The narrow gaps among these contenders, combined with high undecided and null ballot shares near election day, sustain tight odds while any late shifts in turnout or media momentum could reorder the lower rankings.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$855
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 3:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

44%
icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

70%
icon for Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

72%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 43%, followed by "Renan Santos" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" is "Ronaldo Caiado" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan Santos" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 4th Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.