The 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial race remains highly competitive more than two months before the October vote, with trader consensus reflected in closely matched probabilities across numerous candidates and placeholders. Incumbent Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) seeks re-election amid a crowded field that includes Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Ricardo Marques (PL), and several others, none of whom has consolidated broad support. Recent July and August polls show Mitidieri ahead in both spontaneous and stimulated scenarios, yet the gap narrows under different coalition assumptions and the election remains subject to shifts in alliances, campaign momentum, and turnout patterns typical of Brazilian state contests. No single frontrunner has emerged decisively in market pricing, underscoring ongoing uncertainty over final ballot configurations and voter preferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDr. Helton 43%
Ricardo Marques 42%
Emanuel Cacho 42%
Fábio 39%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Dr. Helton
43%
Ricardo Marques
42%
Emanuel Cacho
42%
Fábio
39%
Valmir de Francisquinho
39%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
39%
Dr. Helton 43%
Ricardo Marques 42%
Emanuel Cacho 42%
Fábio 39%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Dr. Helton
$0 Vol.
43%
Ricardo Marques
$0 Vol.
42%
Emanuel Cacho
$0 Vol.
42%
Fábio
$0 Vol.
39%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$0 Vol.
39%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$0 Vol.
39%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial race remains highly competitive more than two months before the October vote, with trader consensus reflected in closely matched probabilities across numerous candidates and placeholders. Incumbent Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) seeks re-election amid a crowded field that includes Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Ricardo Marques (PL), and several others, none of whom has consolidated broad support. Recent July and August polls show Mitidieri ahead in both spontaneous and stimulated scenarios, yet the gap narrows under different coalition assumptions and the election remains subject to shifts in alliances, campaign momentum, and turnout patterns typical of Brazilian state contests. No single frontrunner has emerged decisively in market pricing, underscoring ongoing uncertainty over final ballot configurations and voter preferences.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial race remains highly competitive more than two months before the October vote, with trader consensus reflected in closely matched probabilities across numerous candidates and placeholders. Incumbent Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) seeks re-election amid a crowded field that includes Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Ricardo Marques (PL), and several others, none of whom has consolidated broad support. Recent July and August polls show Mitidieri ahead in both spontaneous and stimulated scenarios, yet the gap narrows under different coalition assumptions and the election remains subject to shifts in alliances, campaign momentum, and turnout patterns typical of Brazilian state contests. No single frontrunner has emerged decisively in market pricing, underscoring ongoing uncertainty over final ballot configurations and voter preferences.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial race remains highly competitive more than two months before the October vote, with trader consensus reflected in closely matched probabilities across numerous candidates and placeholders. Incumbent Fábio Mitidieri (PSD) seeks re-election amid a crowded field that includes Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos), Emanuel Cacho (PSDB), Ricardo Marques (PL), and several others, none of whom has consolidated broad support. Recent July and August polls show Mitidieri ahead in both spontaneous and stimulated scenarios, yet the gap narrows under different coalition assumptions and the election remains subject to shifts in alliances, campaign momentum, and turnout patterns typical of Brazilian state contests. No single frontrunner has emerged decisively in market pricing, underscoring ongoing uncertainty over final ballot configurations and voter preferences.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions