Mailza Assis holds a commanding lead in the Acre gubernatorial race after securing 49.76% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, advancing to the October 25 runoff against Alan Rick. As the sitting governor who assumed office in April following Gladson Cameli’s Senate bid, she benefited from a broad coalition including the PP, MDB, PL, and União, strong municipal-level support across 19 of 22 municipalities, and consistent polling momentum in the campaign’s final weeks. Traders price her at 96.8% implied probability, reflecting this structural edge and first-round results. A realistic shift could occur if Rick consolidates opposition votes, turnout patterns favor his base, or late developments alter voter preferences before the runoff.