Mailza Assis (PP) and Alan Rick (Republicanos) advance to the October 25 runoff after the incumbent secured 49.76% in the first round to Rick’s 32.27%, falling just short of an outright win while dominating 19 of 22 municipalities. Pre-election surveys showed technical ties in second-round matchups, reflecting divided regional support and the need for both candidates to consolidate votes from eliminated contenders such as Tião Bocalom (PSDB) and Thor Dantas (PSB). Mailza’s incumbency advantage and broad geographic base keep the contest close, while Rick’s stronger pockets in three municipalities and potential for third-candidate transfers sustain uncertainty over the final margin. Campaign events, endorsements, and turnout shifts in the remaining three weeks could widen or narrow the gap before ballots close.