Celina Leão (PP) enters the October 25 second-round runoff for Federal District governor with a first-round edge of 49.93% to Leandro Grass (PT)’s 34.47%, falling just short of outright victory. Pre-election surveys, including Datafolha and Correio/Opinião, consistently showed her leading a Celina-Grass matchup by roughly 15–20 points, reflecting her incumbency, broad geographic support outside central Brasília zones, and alignment with conservative Senate winners. Grass performed strongly only in Asa Norte and Asa Sul while trailing elsewhere. Trader pricing for Celina’s margin buckets and the low probability assigned to a Grass win therefore tracks these polling patterns and the recent first-round distribution, with “Other” capturing residual uncertainty around turnout shifts, undecided consolidation, or late campaign developments in the three-week runoff window.