Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Rondônia for the October 25 runoff, reflecting his 67.45% first-round share there against Lula’s 25.89%, consistent with pre-election polls showing 53-65% support. The state’s strong right-wing preferences, evident in 2022 results and reinforced by recent PL gains including the governorship, underpin trader consensus. National momentum from a conservative regional wave, endorsements by eliminated candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, and coalition-building efforts further solidify positioning. Lula’s path to closing the gap depends on turnout mobilization and any late shifts among undecided or centrist voters, though structural barriers in the state remain significant.